Emilio Nava vs Alex Molcan — Prediction
12/04/2026
#100
Emilio Nava
12:30
Today
#44
Alex Molcan
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
BMW Open qualification match on clay between Emilio Nava (favorite, odds 1.74) and Alex Molcan (odds 2.01). Nava shows solid form as a favorite (70% win rate), while Molcan performs better as an underdog. Statistics suggest a tight match, potentially going to three sets.
Our predictions
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Both players have high three-set match statistics (40% each outside Majors). Nava often loses a set as a favorite (60%), and Molcan often wins a set as an underdog (50%). The odds of 2.01 offer good value.
2.28
Confidence
High
Emilio Nava to win
Nava is designated as the favorite (odds 1.74). He has a 70% win rate as a favorite in his last 10 matches, compared to 80% for Molcan, but Molcan is the underdog here. Nava's recent form (5W/5L) is solid, and he performs better in this setup.
1.73
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
A three-set match (prediction 1) typically exceeds the 22.5 games mark. Even in two sets, if the sets are tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-4), the total can be reached. The probability of three sets supports this bet.
1.89
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 14% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 100% | 85% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 44% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 55% | 40% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 33% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 16% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 66% |
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