Orlando Luz vs Luke Johnson — Prediction
16/04/2026
Orlando / Rafael
12:30
Today
Luke / Jan
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Match Preview
Orlando Luz faces Luke Johnson in the first round of the BMW Open on clay. Luz, with a slightly lower odd, is the favorite but shows mixed recent form (3 wins in 10). Johnson, less experienced, won his only recent match. Statistics suggest a tight match, potentially going to three sets.
Our predictions
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Orlando Luz, although the favorite, often loses a set as a favorite (70% of the time). His recent form is mixed (30% wins). Luke Johnson has shown the ability to win a set as an underdog. Player statistics (40% of Luz's matches in 3 sets, 50% for Johnson) support a long match.
1.86
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
The prediction of a match in three sets (over 2.5 sets) greatly increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 games. Even in two sets, if the sets are tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games), the margin is thin. Luz's tendency to play tight matches as a favorite supports this bet.
1.82
Confidence
Medium
Orlando Luz to win
Orlando Luz is slightly favored according to the odds. He has good experience as a favorite (60% win rate). However, his recent form (3W/7L) and the fact he's playing against a player who won his last match make this prediction uncertain. The clay surface advantage could be a key factor.
1.83
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 3 7 | 1 1 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 0% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 57% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 25% | 100% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 0% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 71% | 0% |
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