18/04/2026

Orlando / Rafael

11:00

Today

Theo / Albano

Match Preview

Orlando Luz faces Theo Arribage in the first round of the BMW Open on clay. Luz, the favorite with odds of 1.68, shows mixed form (3 wins in last 10 matches) but good performance as a favorite (60% win rate). Arribage, the underdog (odds 2.11), lacks recent data. No injuries reported. The match could be tight, with Luz's tendency to drop a set even when favored.

Our predictions

Orlando Luz to Win

Orlando Luz is the designated favorite (odds 1.68). His statistics as a favorite are solid: 60% win rate in his last 10 matches in that role. Although his overall form is mixed (3W/7L), he is playing at home on clay, his preferred surface. Against Arribage, who lacks recent data and experience at this level, Luz has the technical and statistical advantage to win.

1.67

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a three-set match (over 2.5 sets) makes the 'over 22.5 games' bet plausible. A two-set match with tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 7-5) totals 24 games, while a three-set match, even with an easy set, often exceeds this mark (e.g., 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 = 29 games). Given Luz's tendency to play tight sets (70% set loss as favorite), the total games should exceed 22.5.

Confidence

Medium

Market Signals

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Success Rate per bet

History

Surface

Win

	Orlando Luz	Theo Arribage
Win \| Lose	3 7	0%
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	0%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	0%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	57%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	25%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	60%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	0%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	0%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	0%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	71%	0%

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