Marta Kostyuk - Tatjana Maria: our prediction
18/04/2026•15:40
#9
Marta Kostyuk
2:0
6•3
6•0
Finished
#45
Tatjana Maria
-
1
-
X
-
2
Marta Kostyuk vs Tatjana Maria Preview — Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole
Marta Kostyuk, the clear favorite (odds 1.07), faces Tatjana Maria (odds 8.16) at the Rouen tournament. Kostyuk shows solid form (6 wins in last 10 matches) and excellent efficiency as a favorite. Maria, more experienced, is a tenacious underdog but her recent statistics are less convincing. No known injury alerts.
Our Marta Kostyuk vs Tatjana Maria predictions
Marta Kostyuk to Win
Kostyuk is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.07). Her statistics are superior: 60% win rate in last 10 matches, and crucially 80% win rate when favorite. She has won 100% of her matches as a favorite with odds between 1.21 and 1.5. Against Maria, who wins only 10% of the time as an underdog, statistical logic and ranking strongly favor her.
1.07
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)
The players' statistics in non-Grand Slam matches indicate a high probability of a match in 2 sets. Kostyuk wins 80% of her recent matches in 2 sets, and Maria 70%. Furthermore, when Kostyuk is the favorite, she finishes the match in 2 sets 60% of the time. The level difference suggested by the odds makes a tight 3-set match less likely.
1.24
Confidence
High
Market signals on Marta Kostyuk vs Tatjana Maria
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Marta Kostyuk vs Tatjana Maria Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 6 4 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 70% | 10% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 100% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 71% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 14% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 100% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 28% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 30% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 42% |
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