Carol Young Suh Lee - Varvara Lepchenko: our prediction

Lee is designated as the favorite by the bookmakers (odds 1.57). Her recent form statistics (60% wins) and her strong efficiency in finishing in 2 sets (80% of her non-Grand Slam matches) are major assets. Her win rate as a favorite (66.7%) is slightly higher than Lepchenko's (60%). No reported injuries disrupt her preparation.

The statistics of both players converge towards a match in 2 sets. Lee finishes 80% of her matches (non-Grand Slam) in 2 sets. Even as a favorite, she concludes 66.7% of the time in 2 sets. Lepchenko, for her part, finishes 60% of her matches in 2 sets, and 80% of her wins as a favorite are in 2 sets. The probability of a 3-set match (20% for Lee, 40% for Lepchenko) is lower.

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a match in 2 sets. If Lee wins 2-0, a tight score (e.g., 6-4, 6-4) would give 20 games, below the limit. However, caution is warranted because Lepchenko has the ability to win sets (she loses a set in 60% of her matches as a favorite). A tight set or a 3-set match could easily exceed 22.5 games. Confidence is therefore medium, based on the high probability of a 2-set match.