Rugby

Tennis

Luca Van Assche - Diego Dedura-Palomero: our prediction

20/04/2026•14:55

#70

Luca Van Assche

0:2

3•6

2•6

Finished

#185

Diego Dedura-Palomero

Luca Van Assche vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Preview — Madrid Open, Qualification

Luca Van Assche, clear favorite (odds 1.38), faces Diego Dedura-Palomero in the Madrid Open qualifiers. Van Assche shows solid form (60% win rate in last 10 matches) and excellent efficiency as a favorite (80% win rate). Dedura-Palomero, underdog (odds 2.84), has lower consistency (50% win rate) and often struggles to win a set when favored (70% chance of losing at least one set). No known injury alerts. The match is played as best of 3 sets.

Our Luca Van Assche vs Diego Dedura-Palomero predictions

Victory for Luca Van Assche

Van Assche is the statistical and logical favorite. His low odds (1.38) reflect his superiority. He wins 80% of his matches as a favorite and shows a 60% win rate in his recent period. Dedura-Palomero, with only 50% recent wins and poor performance as a favorite (70% chance of losing at least one set), seems clearly behind. No injury disrupts this scenario.

1.35

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Van Assche, as a favorite outside Grand Slams, finishes his matches in 2 sets in 90% of cases (indicator 'en2set'). Dedura-Palomero, as an underdog, loses in 2 sets in 80% of cases ('en2setoutsider'). The probability of a match in 2 sets (2-0 victory) is therefore very high. The logic of Van Assche's victory combined with these statistics makes a 3-set scenario unlikely.

1.48

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

The most likely scenario is a 2-0 victory for Van Assche. For the total games to exceed 22.5, very tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games) or a third set would be required. Given the high probability of a match in 2 sets and Van Assche's efficiency as a favorite (few sets lost), a score like 6-3, 6-4 (19 games) or 6-2, 6-3 (17 games) is plausible. However, a tight set could push the total over, hence medium confidence.

1.65

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Luca Van Assche vs Diego Dedura-Palomero

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Luca Van Assche vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Luca Van Assche	Diego Dedura-Palomero
Win \| Lose	6 4	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	66%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	33%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	57%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	42%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	28%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	28%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	57%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	71%	0%