Rei Sakamoto vs Vilius Gaubas — Prediction
21/04/2026
#29
Rei Sakamoto
11:00
Today
#124
Vilius Gaubas
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Madrid Open 2026 qualifying match between Rei Sakamoto and Vilius Gaubas. Both players show similar recent form (40% wins in the last 10 matches) and identical odds (1.85). Sakamoto shows a strong tendency to finish his matches in 2 sets (80%) when favored, while Gaubas is more prone to 3-set matches (40%). No information on potential injuries is available.
Our predictions
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Rei Sakamoto finishes 80% of his matches in 2 sets when favored. Vilius Gaubas, although more prone to 3 sets (40%), shows identical odds, suggesting a close match but likely concluded in two clear sets. The overall trend of both players outside Grand Slams leans towards 2-set matches.
1.61
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
This bet is consistent with the prediction of a 2-set match (Under 2.5 sets). If the match ends in 2 sets, the total number of games is very likely to remain below the 22.5 threshold, especially if one of the sets is relatively one-sided. Sakamoto's tendency to finish his matches quickly favors this scenario.
1.86
Confidence
Medium
Victory of Rei Sakamoto
The odds are perfectly balanced (1.85 each). Sakamoto has an 80% win rate as a favorite in his last 10 matches, slightly higher than Gaubas (70%). His strong propensity to win in 2 sets (80% as a favorite) is a positive indicator. The match is very close on paper, but the slightly favorable micro-statistics for Sakamoto justify this bet at equal odds.
1.85
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 100% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 100% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 40% | 66% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 40% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 66% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 66% | 0% |
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