21/04/2026

#176

Ergi Kirkin

09:00

Today

#208

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Match Preview

Qualifying match in Shymkent between Turk Ergi Kirkin (underdog) and Belgian Gilles Arnaud Bailly (favorite). Recent stats show two players in mixed form (30% win rate each in last 10 matches). Bailly is the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.60), but Kirkin has shown an ability to push opponents to deciding sets. No known injury alerts.

Our predictions

Gilles Arnaud Bailly to Win

Bailly is the clear designated favorite (odds 1.60). His stats as a favorite are solid (70% win rate in last 10 matches in that role). Against Kirkin, who loses 70% of his recent matches and wins only 30% as an underdog, the odds logic and form point to Bailly.

1.62

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Set statistics support a 3-set match. Kirkin, as an underdog, wins at least 1 set 30% of the time, and Bailly, as a favorite, loses at least 1 set 50% of the time. Furthermore, in the last 10 non-Grand Slam matches, Kirkin plays 30% of matches in 3 sets, and Bailly 60%. The probability of a close match is high.

2.44

Confidence

High

Market Signals

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Success Rate per bet

History

Surface

Win

	Ergi Kirkin	Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Win \| Lose	3 7	3 7
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	20%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	28%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	25%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	28%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	50%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	50%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	0%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	80%	66%

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