Rugby

Tennis

Adolfo Vallejo - Henrique Rocha: our prediction

21/04/2026•16:35

#50

Adolfo Vallejo

2:1

6•1

4•6

6•2

Finished

#21

Henrique Rocha

Adolfo Vallejo vs Henrique Rocha Preview — Madrid Open, Qualification

Adolfo Vallejo, the bookmakers' favorite, faces Henrique Rocha in the Madrid Open qualifiers. Both players show similar recent form (60% wins in last 10 matches). Vallejo is more effective as a favorite on fast courts, while Rocha shows an ability to extend matches. A tight two-set match is likely.

Our Adolfo Vallejo vs Henrique Rocha predictions

Under 2.5 Sets

The data is very clear: outside Grand Slams, Vallejo plays 70% of his matches in 2 sets, and Rocha 90%. When favored, this percentage rises to 80% each. Rocha, as an underdog, loses 70% of his matches in 2 sets. The probability of a 3-set match is low (30% for Vallejo, 10% for Rocha across all matches). This bet is consistent with the prediction of a Vallejo win and under 22.5 games.

1.47

Confidence

Very high

Under 22.5 Games

Both players have a strong tendency to play matches in 2 sets when favored (80% each). Vallejo, in particular, finishes 70% of his non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets. Rocha, as an underdog, loses 70% of his matches in 2 sets. A 2-0 win by Vallejo (6-4, 6-4 or similar) would total 20 games, well under the 22.5 line. Even a tight set (7-5) would keep the total low.

1.72

Confidence

High

Adolfo Vallejo to Win

Vallejo is clearly the favorite (odds 1.40). His statistics as a favorite are solid (70% win rate). On fast surfaces (fast Madrid clay), his performance as a favorite with odds between 1.0 and 1.2 is excellent (83.3% wins in 6 matches). He also has a good overall win rate (60%) and a strong tendency to finish in 2 sets when favored (80%). No known injury alerts.

1.36

Confidence

High

Market signals on Adolfo Vallejo vs Henrique Rocha

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Adolfo Vallejo vs Henrique Rocha Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Adolfo Vallejo	Henrique Rocha
Win \| Lose	6 4	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	33%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	66%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	33%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	66%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	80%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	16%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	80%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%