Rugby

Tennis

Elise Mertens - Karolina Pliskova: our prediction

26/04/2026•13:10

Elise Mertens

1:2

5•7

6•2

6•7

Finished

Karolina Pliskova

Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Preview — Madrid Open

Elise Mertens faces Karolina Pliskova in the first round of the Madrid Open. Mertens is the favorite with odds of 1.42, while Pliskova is the underdog at 2.86. Statistics show that Mertens has a 70% win rate when favored, while Pliskova has a 60% win rate as a favorite. In the last 10 matches, Mertens won 5 and lost 5, while Pliskova won 6 and lost 4. The match is played on clay, a surface where both players have mixed performances.

Our Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova predictions

Under 2.5 sets in the match

As mentioned, both players have a high percentage of matches in 2 sets. Mertens has 70% and Pliskova has 60% of their matches ending in 2 sets. Additionally, Mertens as a favorite has 90% of matches in 2 sets. It is therefore very likely that the match will end in 2 sets, which corresponds to under 2.5 sets.

1.5

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

Both players tend to finish their matches quickly. Mertens has a 70% rate of matches in 2 sets (outside Grand Slams), and Pliskova has a 60% rate. Additionally, Mertens as a favorite has a 90% rate of matches in 2 sets. This suggests the match could end in straight sets, with under 22.5 games.

1.62

Confidence

High

Victory for Elise Mertens

Mertens is the favorite with odds of 1.42 and has a 70% win rate when favored. Pliskova, as an underdog, has a 50% win rate as an outsider. Mertens also has a good record on clay, while Pliskova has shown signs of fragility recently. Confidence is high but not maximum due to first-round uncertainty.

1.36

Confidence

High

Market signals on Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Elise Mertens	Karolina Pliskova
Win \| Lose	5 5	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	75%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	66%