Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk — Prediction
26/04/2026
#3
Jessica Pegula
14:30
Tomorrow
#18
Marta Kostyuk
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
First round match of the Madrid Open between Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk. Both players are in great form with 80% wins in their last 10 matches. Pegula is the favorite on this surface.
Our predictions
Victory for Jessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula is the favorite and has a 100% win rate when favored. She is a seed and performs well on clay. Marta Kostyuk, although in form, has a lower win rate as an underdog (30%).
1.74
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 sets in the match
This bet is consistent with the 'under 22.5 games' bet. Both players have a high percentage of matches in 2 sets outside Grand Slams (Pegula 50%, Kostyuk 80%). A match in 2 sets means fewer than 2.5 sets. The probability is high.
1.58
Confidence
Medium
Under 22.5 games in the match
Both players tend to finish their matches in 2 sets outside Grand Slams (Pegula 50%, Kostyuk 80%). A match in 2 sets usually implies fewer than 22.5 games. Additionally, Kostyuk is effective as a favorite (80% of matches in 2 sets).
1.73
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 9 1 | 8 2 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 10% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 10% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 100% | 90% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 75% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 14% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 28% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 30% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 33% | 25% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 33% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 0% |
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