Keegan Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction
28/04/2026
#201
Keegan Smith
09:30
Tomorrow
#196
Hayato Matsuoka
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Match between Keegan Smith and Hayato Matsuoka in Jiujiang. Smith has a low win rate (20%) and often loses as a favorite (80%), while Matsuoka is more solid (40% wins, 77.8% as favorite). Both players tend to play 3-set matches (60% for Smith, 50% for Matsuoka). No injuries reported.
Our predictions
Victory for Hayato Matsuoka
Matsuoka has a better overall win rate (40% vs 20%) and is very solid when favored (77.8%). Smith loses 80% of his matches as a favorite, indicating fragility. Matsuoka seems more reliable for this match.
2
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Smith plays 60% of his matches in 3 sets and Matsuoka 50%. Both players tend to play close matches, making a third set likely.
2.32
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
Although the match could go to 3 sets, both players have tight game statistics. On average, a 3-set match can stay under 22.5 games if the sets are not too long. The tendency of both players to lose sets quickly (Smith loses 80% of his sets as a favorite) could limit the total number of games.
1.8
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 2 8 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 77% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 20% | 71% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 16% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 20% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 55% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 80% | 57% |
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