Matteo Berrettini vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction
01/05/2026
#6
Matteo Berrettini
15:00
Today
#7
Hubert Hurkacz
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Tight match between Matteo Berrettini and Hubert Hurkacz in Cagliari. Both players have a 50% win rate in their last 10 matches. Berrettini is favorite with odds of 1.99, but Hurkacz (1.73) has a better win percentage in 2 sets (80% each). The match could be decided in 2 sets.
Our predictions
Under 2.5 sets
Both players have an 80% rate of matches ending in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams). Hurkacz is particularly strong as a favorite with 90% wins in 2 sets. The match takes place in Cagliari, an ATP 250 tournament, which increases the likelihood of a 2-set match.
1.58
Confidence
High
Victory of Hubert Hurkacz
Hurkacz is the bookmakers' favorite with odds of 1.73. He has an excellent record in 2 sets (80% wins) and is very solid when favored (90% wins in 2 sets). Berrettini, although dangerous, has a win rate of only 50% as a favorite and has lost 80% of his sets as a favorite.
1.73
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games
Given the high probability of a 2-set match (80% for both players), the total number of games should be under 22.5. Both players tend to finish their matches quickly, especially Hurkacz who is very effective as a favorite.
2.1
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 5 5 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 33% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 66% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 20% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 25% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 75% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 75% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 100% |
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