Matteo Arnaldi vs Gianluca Cadenasso — Prediction
02/05/2026
#38
Matteo Arnaldi
13:00
Today
#169
Gianluca Cadenasso
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2
Match Preview
Match of the Cagliari tournament between Matteo Arnaldi and Gianluca Cadenasso. Arnaldi is the favorite with odds of 1.58, while Cadenasso is the underdog at 2.26. Statistics show that Cadenasso has a better recent win rate (70%) and is more effective as a favorite (80% wins). Arnaldi, despite being the favorite, has lost 60% of his recent matches and tends to lose sets even when favored.
Our predictions
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Cadenasso has 70% of his matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams), and Arnaldi 50%. Both players have a low percentage of matches in 3 sets. This match should end in 2 sets.
1.56
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
Both players tend to play fast matches. Cadenasso has 70% of his matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams), and Arnaldi 50% in 2 sets. Additionally, Arnaldi has lost 60% of his recent matches, often in two sets. The match should be short.
1.77
Confidence
High
Victory of Gianluca Cadenasso
Cadenasso has a 70% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to 40% for Arnaldi. Additionally, Cadenasso wins 80% of his matches as a favorite, showing great confidence. Arnaldi, despite being the favorite, has lost 60% of his recent matches and has lost at least one set in 60% of his matches as a favorite. The odds of 2.26 for Cadenasso are attractive.
2.28
Confidence
High
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 55% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 33% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 80% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 60% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 28% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 28% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 25% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 80% |
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