Hugo Dellien vs Jesper De Jong — Prediction
05/05/2026

#11

Hugo Dellien
11:30
Today

#102

Jesper de Jong
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1
-
X
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2
Match Preview
Qualification match for the Italian Internationals between Hugo Dellien and Jesper de Jong. Dellien is favorite with odds of 1.67 and an 80% win rate in his last 10 matches. de Jong, underdog at 2.1, has a 40% win rate.
Our predictions
Victory of Jesper de Jong
Although Dellien is the favorite on paper, de Jong has shown a good ability to win as an underdog (20% wins as underdog) and a good win rate as a favorite (60%). Additionally, de Jong has won at least one set as an underdog in 40% of his matches, showing his fighting spirit. The odds of 2.1 are attractive.
1.69
Confidence
High (65%)
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Statistics show that de Jong tends to play matches in 3 sets (60% of his non-Grand Slam matches end in 3 sets). Dellien, although favorite, has lost at least one set as a favorite in 30% of his matches. Combined with de Jong's fighting spirit, it is likely that the match goes beyond 2 sets.
2.24
Confidence
High (65%)
Under 22.5 games in the match
Although the match could go to 3 sets, both players tend to play tight matches. Dellien has a high win rate in 2 sets (70% outside Grand Slams), which could limit the number of games. Additionally, the clay surface may favor longer games, but the tendency of both players to conclude matches quickly when favorite or underdog suggests a moderate total of games.
1.85
Confidence
Medium (50%)
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
Win | Lose | 8 2 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 70% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 100% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 100% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 28% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 71% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 100% | 60% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 57% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 33% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 25% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 57% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 100% |
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