Rugby

Tennis

Jasmine Paolini - Elise Mertens: our prediction

09/05/2026

Jasmine Paolini

13:00

Today

Elise Mertens

Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens Preview — Internazionali BNL d'Italia

Jasmine Paolini faces Elise Mertens in the first round of the Internazionali d'Italia in Rome. Paolini is a slight favorite according to the odds, but comes in with average form (6 wins in her last 10 matches). Mertens has a balanced record (5 wins) but has shown more solidity when favored (70% wins). The match promises to be tight, with a possible tendency to go to 3 sets, especially for Paolini who played 70% of her non-Grand-Slam matches in 3 sets.

Our Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens predictions

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Mertens has a 70% rate of matches in 2 sets outside Grand Slams, and when favored, this rate rises to 80%. Paolini, although having 70% of matches in 3 sets, is here an underdog and has a 70% rate of matches in 2 sets in this role. Mertens' tendency to dominate quickly and the fact that Paolini struggles against a solid favorite (she loses a set in 90% of her matches as a favorite) suggest a 2-set match.

1.54

Confidence

High (65 %)

Under 22.5 games in the match

Mertens, when favored, wins 80% of her matches in 2 sets, limiting the number of games. Paolini, on the other hand, lost 90% of her matches as a favorite, but here she is an underdog, and in that role she won at least 1 set in 50% of cases, which could lengthen the match. However, Mertens' tendency to close quickly and the fast clay of Rome favor a total games under 22.5.

1.69

Confidence

High (65 %)

Victory for Elise Mertens

Although Paolini is favored on paper (odds at 2.09), Mertens has a better record as a favorite (70% wins) and has won 80% of her matches in 2 sets when favored. Moreover, Paolini tends to lose sets (90% of her matches as a favorite), which could benefit Mertens, who is more solid mentally and physically on clay.

1.7

Confidence

High (65 %)

Market signals on Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Jasmine Paolini	Elise Mertens
Win \| Lose	6 4	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	60%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	16%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	75%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	30%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	50%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	40%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	33%

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