Rugby

Tennis

Jelena Ostapenko - Gabriela Ruse: our prediction

07/05/2026•17:00

Jelena Ostapenko

2:1

2•6

6•2

6•3

Finished

#47

Gabriela Ruse

Jelena Ostapenko vs Gabriela Ruse Preview — Internazionali BNL d'Italia

First round match of the Italian Open between Jelena Ostapenko and Gabriela Ruse. Ostapenko, a powerful player and seed, faces Ruse, a solid opponent. Both players have a similar win percentage in their last 10 matches (50% for Ostapenko, 60% for Ruse). Ostapenko is the favorite but Ruse has shown good recent form.

Our Jelena Ostapenko vs Gabriela Ruse predictions

Gabriela Ruse to win

Gabriela Ruse has won 60% of her last 10 matches compared to 50% for Ostapenko. Additionally, Ruse has an 80% win rate when favorite, similar to Ostapenko. However, Ruse has shown a better ability to win as an underdog (30% vs 30%, but with a larger sample). Ruse's recent form and confidence could make the difference.

2.34

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games

Both players have a high percentage of matches in 3 sets (50% for Ostapenko, 40% for Ruse excluding Grand Slams). Additionally, Ostapenko tends to lose sets even when favorite (30% of her matches as favorite). This suggests the match could be tight and go over 22.5 games. Confidence is medium as odds are not available to confirm.

2.02

Confidence

Medium

Under 2.5 sets

Statistically, Ostapenko finishes 50% of her matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams) and Ruse 60%. However, both players tend to play tight matches. The probability of a 2-set match is moderate, but the data is not strong enough for a high confidence level.

1.55

Confidence

Low

Market signals on Jelena Ostapenko vs Gabriela Ruse

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Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Jelena Ostapenko vs Gabriela Ruse Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Jelena Ostapenko	Gabriela Ruse
Win \| Lose	5 5	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	20%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	66%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	80%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	30%	60%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	25%	40%

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