Tomas Machac - Daniil Medvedev: our prediction
09/05/2026
#22
Tomas Machac
11:00
Today
#2
Daniil Medvedev
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1
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X
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2
Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Preview — Internazionali BNL d'Italia
First round match of the Internazionali BNL d'Italia between Tomas Machac and Daniil Medvedev. Medvedev is the favorite with odds of 1.52, but Machac has shown good recent form. Medvedev has a 60% win rate in his last 10 matches, while Machac is at 50%. The match is played on clay, a surface where Medvedev sometimes struggles.
Our Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev predictions
Under 2.5 sets in the match
This bet is consistent with the 'Under 22.5 games' bet. Medvedev is favored and has 60% of his non-Grand Slam matches ending in 2 sets. Machac, as an underdog, also has 60% of his non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets. It is likely the match will end in two sets.
1.56
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
Medvedev tends to win his matches in straight sets when favored (60% of his non-Grand Slam matches end in 2 sets). Machac, as an underdog, has 60% of his non-Grand Slam matches ending in 2 sets. The match should be relatively short.
1.85
Confidence
High
Victory for Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev is the logical favorite with odds of 1.52. He has a 60% win rate in his last 10 matches and 70% when favored. Machac only has 30% wins as an underdog. Medvedev is higher ranked and more experienced on the ATP tour.
1.53
Confidence
High
Market signals on Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 30% | 80% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 30% | 70% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 50% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 60% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 42% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 66% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 90% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 33% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 40% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 85% | 100% |
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