Felix Auger Aliassime - Mariano Navone: our prediction
09/05/2026
#5
Felix Auger-Aliassime
12:30
Today
#35
Mariano Navone
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2
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Preview — Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Mariano Navone in the first round of the 2026 Italian Open on clay. Auger-Aliassime is the favorite with odds of 1.58, while Navone is the underdog at 2.26. The two players have contrasting recent form, with Navone showing a 70% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to 60% for Auger-Aliassime. However, Auger-Aliassime has an advantage as a favorite, with 80% wins in this role.
Our Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone predictions
Victory for Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime is the favorite with odds of 1.58, and his record as a favorite is solid (80% wins). Navone, despite good recent form (70% wins), has a win rate as an underdog of only 30%. On clay, Auger-Aliassime has the advantage of experience and ranking.
1.6
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 sets in the match
The data indicates that in non-Grand Slam tournaments, Auger-Aliassime finishes 70% of his matches in 2 sets when favorite, and Navone 70% as well. This suggests a high probability that the match ends in 2 sets, hence 'under 2.5 sets'. This bet is consistent with the 'under 22.5 games' bet.
2.26
Confidence
Medium
Under 22.5 games in the match
Statistics show that in non-Grand Slam tournaments, Auger-Aliassime finishes 70% of his matches in 2 sets when favorite, and Navone 70% as well. This suggests a trend towards short matches, making the 'under 22.5 games' bet plausible. The odds of 2.26 offer good value.
2.26
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 6 4 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 70% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 22% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 77% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 90% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 75% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 83% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 66% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 40% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 66% |
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