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Ilia Simakin - Liam Draxl: our prediction

18/05/2026•10:10

#186

Ilia Simakin

1:2

4•6

7•6

2•6

Finished

#109

Liam Draxl

Ilia Simakin vs Liam Draxl Preview — Roland Garros, Qualification ATP

Roland Garros qualification match between Ilia Simakin and Liam Draxl. Draxl is the favorite with odds at 1.33, while Simakin is the underdog at 3.16. Both players have similar win rates in their last 10 matches (50% for Simakin, 40% for Draxl), but Draxl performs better when favored (80% wins).

Our Ilia Simakin vs Liam Draxl predictions

Victory for Liam Draxl

Liam Draxl is the favorite with odds of 1.33, and he has an 80% win rate when favored in his last 10 matches. Simakin, as an underdog, has only 40% wins in that role. Draxl seems more solid and should win.

1.33

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Simakin tends to play tight matches: 70% of his non-Grand Slam matches go to 3 sets, and even as an underdog he wins at least one set in 60% of cases. Draxl, on the other hand, loses a set in 70% of his matches as a favorite. The match should therefore be competitive and go over 2.5 sets.

2.48

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

With a high probability of over 2.5 sets, the total number of games should exceed 22.5. Both players tend to play tight matches, and even if Draxl wins in two sets, they could be close. However, confidence is medium because a straight 6-4 6-4 (20 games) is still possible.

2.1

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Ilia Simakin vs Liam Draxl

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Ilia Simakin vs Liam Draxl Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Ilia Simakin	Liam Draxl
Win \| Lose	5 5	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	100%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	80%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	40%	25%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	25%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	70%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	71%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	50%	80%

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