Petr Bar Biryukov - Alastair Gray: our prediction

With a high probability of a 2-set match (Gray 70%, Biryukov 50%), the total number of games should be under 22.5. 2-set matches typically have fewer than 22.5 games, especially if the sets are tight. Gray, being the favorite, should dominate and limit the number of games.

Gray has finished 70% of his matches in 2 sets (outside Grand Slams), and Biryukov 50%. As a favorite, Gray has 60% of his matches in 2 sets. Biryukov, as an underdog, has 40% of his matches in 2 sets. Both players tend to play 2-set matches, making a match under 2.5 sets likely.

Alastair Gray is the favorite with odds of 1.62 and a 60% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to 50% for Biryukov. Gray also has a better record as a favorite (60% wins) and has won 100% of his matches as a favorite with odds between 1.21 and 1.5. Biryukov, as an underdog, has only 30% wins. Gray seems more solid and should prevail.