Rugby

Tennis

Tatjana Maria - Elise Mertens: our prediction

25/05/2026•13:25

#45

Tatjana Maria

0:2

5•7

0•6

Finished

Elise Mertens

Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens Preview — Roland Garros WTA

First round match of Roland Garros WTA between Tatjana Maria and Elise Mertens. Mertens is the heavy favorite with odds of 1.05, while Maria is the outsider at 10.4. Mertens has a record of 5 wins and 5 losses in her last 10 matches, same as Maria. However, Mertens has a better win rate as a favorite (70%) compared to Maria's 80%. The match is played on clay, Mertens' preferred surface.

Our Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens predictions

Victory of Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens is the overwhelming favorite with odds of 1.05. She has a win rate of 70% when favored, and she performs particularly well on clay. Tatjana Maria, despite having an 80% win rate as a favorite, is the outsider here and has only a 40% win rate in this role. Additionally, Mertens has a better Grand Slam record, which reinforces her position.

1.05

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

As mentioned earlier, both players have a strong tendency to finish their matches in 2 sets, especially when favored. Mertens, as the heavy favorite, should dominate the match and win it in 2 sets. Maria, as the outsider, has little chance of pushing the match to 3 sets. Therefore, the match should end in under 2.5 sets.

1.2

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

Statistics show that Mertens finishes 60% of her matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams) and 70% when favored. Maria, for her part, finishes 90% of her matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams) and 80% when favored. With Mertens as the overwhelming favorite, it is likely that the match will end in straight 2 sets, resulting in under 22.5 games.

1.21

Confidence

High

Market signals on Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Tatjana Maria	Elise Mertens
Win \| Lose	5 5	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	60%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	80%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	10%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	60%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	80%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	66%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	30%	40%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	40%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	40%	66%

Betting actions

Manage your bets and alerts

TODAY'S OFFERS

Exclusive new customer offers