Mariano Navone - Learner Tien: our prediction

Navone is the favorite with odds of 1.65 and has a 70% win rate in his last 10 matches (7 wins, 3 losses). As a favorite, he wins 90% of his matches (9/10). Tien, while solid (60% wins), has a lower win rate as a favorite (70%) and tends to lose sets (80% of his matches as favorite). Navone's recent form and favorite status favor him.

Both players have a tendency to play 3-set matches outside of Grand Slams. Navone has 30% of his matches in 3 sets, Tien 50%. As a favorite, Tien loses a set in 80% of his matches, suggesting a tight match. Additionally, Navone as an underdog has an 80% chance of winning at least one set. These factors indicate a high probability of seeing all 3 sets.

Given the high probability of a 3-set match (over 2.5 sets), the total number of games should exceed 22.5. A typical 3-set match often has more than 22.5 games, especially if the sets are tight. Tien's tendency to lose sets and Navone's ability to win them as an underdog reinforce this assumption.