AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda: our prediction
17/05/2026•14:30
AZ Alkmaar
3:3
(2:0)
Finished
NAC Breda
-
1
-
X
-
2
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Preview — Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar, heavy favorite (odds at 1.34), hosts NAC Breda for an Eredivisie match. Statistics show a clear dominance of AZ at home, with a prolific attack (9 times over 1.5 goals in 10 matches). NAC Breda struggles away and has won only 2 of its last 10 matches. Both teams rarely score together (4 times for AZ, 3 for NAC).
Our AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda predictions
AZ Alkmaar Victory
AZ Alkmaar is the favorite with odds of 1.34. In their last 10 matches, the team has won 4 times and lost only 2. At home, AZ is very solid, with 9 out of 10 matches exceeding 1.5 goals, showing strong offensive capability. On the other hand, NAC Breda has won only 2 of its last 10 matches and lost 5. Away from home, the task looks difficult for NAC, which has not won any match as an underdog. Logic and statistics point to an AZ victory.
1.29
Confidence
High
Over 1.5 goals in the match
Statistics show a strong trend towards goals in AZ Alkmaar's matches. In their last 10 games, 9 have seen over 1.5 goals. For NAC Breda, 8 of their last 10 matches have also exceeded this threshold. Combined with AZ's offensive power at home and NAC's defensive difficulties away, it is very likely that the match will total at least 2 goals.
1.07
Confidence
High
Under 1.5 goals for NAC Breda
NAC Breda has shown a weak offensive capability, especially away. In their last 10 matches, the team has scored more than 1.5 goals only 2 times. Conversely, 8 of their matches have seen under 1.5 goals from them. Facing a solid AZ defense at home (4 clean sheets in 10), it is plausible that NAC Breda will not score more than one goal, or even none.
1.34
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 4 4 2 | 2 3 5 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 83% | 83% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 100% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 25% | 20% |
Win by being a favorite | 50% | 33% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 75% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 25% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider | 25% | 0% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 40% 60% | 30% 70% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 40% 60% | 30% 40% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 40% 60% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 60% 40% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 70% 30% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 20% 80% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 30% 70% | 40% 60% |
Leading at half-time | 50% 50% | 20% 80% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 20% | 30% |
2nd half | 50% | 40% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 90% 10% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 90% 10% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 70% 30% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 40% 60% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 10% 90% | 20% 80% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 70% 30% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 60% 40% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 30% 70% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 20% 80% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 10% 90% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Mijnans | 40% (4/10) | 25% (2/8) | Mohamed Nassoh |
| Troy Parrott | 33% (3/9) | 17% (1/6) | Boyd Lucassen |
| Peer Koopmeiners | 40% (2/5) | 10% (1/10) | Juho Talvitie |
| Mexx Meerdink | 20% (2/10) | 10% (1/10) | Andre Ayew |
| Matej Sin | 11% (1/9) | 20% (1/5) | Moussa Soumano |
| Mateo Chavez | 11% (1/9) | 10% (1/10) | Kamal Sowah |
| Kees Smit | 13% (1/8) | 10% (1/10) | Boy Kemper |
| Jordy Clasie | 14% (1/7) | ||
| Isak Steiner Jensen | 11% (1/9) | ||
| Mees de Wit | 13% (1/8) |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Mijnans | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5 | ⚽⚽2 | Boy Kemper |
| Troy Parrott | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽2 | Mohamed Nassoh |
| Peer Koopmeiners | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽2 | Moussa Soumano |
| Mexx Meerdink | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽1 | Boyd Lucassen |
| Isak Steiner Jensen | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Kamal Sowah |
| Kees Smit | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Juho Talvitie |
| Jordy Clasie | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Andre Ayew |
| Mateo Chavez | ⚽1 | ||
| Matej Sin | ⚽1 | ||
| Mees de Wit | ⚽1 |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 90% | 100% |
Over corners 7.5 | 80% | 90% |
Over corners 8.5 | 80% | 90% |
Over corners 9.5 | 70% | 80% |
Over corners 10.5 | 50% | 70% |
Over corners 11.5 | 40% | 70% |
Over corners 12.5 | 20% | 50% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 90% | 100% |
Over corners 3.5 | 70% | 100% |
Over corners 4.5 | 60% | 70% |
Over corners 5.5 | 60% | 60% |
Over corners 6.5 | 50% | 50% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 80% | 80% |
1.5 | 40% | 20% |
2.5 | 20% | 10% |
3.5 | 20% | 10% |
4.5 | 10% | 0% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
Betting actions
Manage your bets and alerts
TODAY'S OFFERS
Exclusive new customer offers