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Mainz 05 - Union Berlin: our prediction

10/05/2026•19:30

Mainz 05

1:3

(0:1)

Finished

Union Berlin

Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Preview — Bundesliga

Mainz 05, the home favorite, faces Union Berlin. Mainz shows solid home form with 60% wins and a prolific attack (9/10 matches with over 1.5 goals). Union Berlin struggles away, with only 2 wins in their last 10 away games. Both teams tend to concede goals, making a match with goals from both sides likely.

Our Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin predictions

Over 1.5 goals in the match

This bet is very solid. Mainz 05 has seen over 1.5 goals in 90% of their last 10 matches, and Union Berlin in 70%. Furthermore, both teams have a strong tendency to concede goals (Mainz 70% and Union Berlin 80% of their matches with at least one goal conceded). Combined with Mainz's offensive quality at home, it is very likely to see at least 2 goals in this match.

1.12

Confidence

Very high

Both teams to score

Both teams have shown a strong tendency to score and concede goals. Mainz 05 has seen both teams score in 50% of their matches, while Union Berlin is at 60%. Furthermore, both teams have a low 'clean sheet' rate (Mainz 30%, Union Berlin 20%), meaning they struggle to keep a clean sheet. With Mainz's attack at home and Union's ability to score away (even if they lose), this bet has a high chance of success.

1.45

Confidence

High

Mainz 05 to win

Mainz 05 is the logical favorite. At home, they have a 60% win rate in their last 10 matches, with an attack that scores in 80% of these games. In contrast, Union Berlin struggles away, with only 20% wins and a defense that has conceded in 80% of their away games. The odds of 1.75 for a Mainz win are therefore very attractive.

1.67

Confidence

High

Market signals on Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Mainz 05	Union Berlin
Win	6 1 3	2 2 6
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	83%	33%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	80%	0%
Win by being a favorite	83%	0%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	50%	43%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	25%	29%
Win by being an outsider	25%	29%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	30% 70%	20% 80%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	50% 50%	60% 50%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	40% 60%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	80% 20%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	30% 70%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	60% 40%	40% 60%
Leading at half-time	40% 60%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	40%	20%
2nd half	30%	40%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	90% 10%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	50% 50%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	20% 80%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	10% 90%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	80% 20%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	70% 30%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	10% 90%	100%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Phillip Tietz	30% (3/10)	30% (3/10)	Andrej Ilic
Paul Nebel	20% (2/10)	29% (2/7)	Woo-Yeong Jeong
Nadiem Amiri	25% (2/8)	20% (2/10)	Oliver Burke
Sheraldo Becker	25% (2/8)	10% (1/10)	Livan Burcu
Dominik Kohr	10% (1/10)	13% (1/8)	Andras Schafer
Kaishu Sano	10% (1/10)	10% (1/10)	Danilho Doekhi
Stefan Posch	10% (1/10)	10% (1/10)	Josip Juranovic
Phillipp Mwene	10% (1/10)	11% (1/9)	Derrick Koehn
		11% (1/9)	Tom Rothe
		11% (1/9)	Leopold Querfeld

Total goals per player

	1	2
Phillip Tietz	⚽⚽⚽⚽4	⚽⚽⚽⚽4	Andrej Ilic
Paul Nebel	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽2	Oliver Burke
Sheraldo Becker	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Woo-Yeong Jeong
Nadiem Amiri	⚽⚽2	⚽1	Derrick Koehn
Stefan Posch	⚽1	⚽1	Livan Burcu
Dominik Kohr	⚽1	⚽1	Leopold Querfeld
Kaishu Sano	⚽1	⚽1	Tom Rothe
Phillipp Mwene	⚽1	⚽1	Danilho Doekhi
		⚽1	Josip Juranovic
		⚽1	Andras Schafer

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	80%	90%
Over corners 7.5	80%	80%
Over corners 8.5	60%	50%
Over corners 9.5	50%	30%
Over corners 10.5	30%	30%
Over corners 11.5	30%	30%
Over corners 12.5	20%	30%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	100%	50%
Over corners 3.5	90%	50%
Over corners 4.5	60%	30%
Over corners 5.5	40%	20%
Over corners 6.5	20%	20%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	100%	90%
1.5	50%	60%
2.5	20%	20%
3.5	10%	20%
4.5	0%	20%
5.5	0%	0%

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