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Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid: our prediction

08/01/2026•20:00

Atletico Madrid

1:2

(0:1)

Finished

Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Preview — Super Cup

Super Cup match between Atletico Madrid (home) and Real Madrid (away). Real Madrid is favorite (odds 2.32). No information found on injuries to key players. Key indicator: 'over15' for Real away: 100% success (10/10). Both teams have performing attacks.

Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions

Over 2.5 Goals

Both teams have a strong tendency for matches over 2.5 goals: 60% for Atletico (6/10) and 70% for Real (7/10) in their last 10 matches. With in-form attackers (Mbappé 11 goals, Griezmann 4 goals) and conceding defenses, an open match is likely.

1.57

Confidence

High (65 %)

Both Teams to Score

In the last 10 matches, Atletico Madrid has seen both teams score in 60% of cases, and Real Madrid in 70% of cases. The defenses (30% clean sheet for Atletico, 20% for Real) are sometimes fragile, and the attacks are well set (Griezmann, Mbappé).

1.5

Confidence

High (65 %)

Real Madrid Win

Real Madrid is the bookmakers' favorite (odds 2.32) with 6 wins in its last 10 matches (60%). Away, its attack is formidable with 100% of matches over 1.5 goals. Atletico, solid at home (7 wins/10), can resist but Real's recent form is convincing.

2.13

Confidence

Medium (50 %)

Market signals on Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid
Win	7 1 2	6 2 2
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	89%	89%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	100%	50%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	75%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	50%	0%
Win by being a favorite	78%	67%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	0%
Win by being an outsider	0%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	30% 70%	20% 80%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	60% 40%	70% 60%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	50% 50%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	70% 30%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	70% 30%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	30% 70%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	50% 50%	40% 60%
Leading at half-time	50% 50%	60% 40%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	30%	30%
2nd half	60%	50%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	80% 20%	100%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	60% 40%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	30% 70%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	20% 80%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	90% 10%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	60% 40%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	30% 70%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	100%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Ademola Lookman	38% (3/8)	50% (4/8)	Kylian Mbappe
Alexander Soerloth	25% (2/8)	44% (4/9)	Vinicius Junior
Julian Alvarez	50% (2/4)	20% (2/10)	Gonzalo Garcia
Nico Gonzalez	50% (2/4)	20% (2/10)	Jude Bellingham
Thiago Almada	13% (1/8)	14% (1/7)	Federico Valverde
Antoine Griezmann	10% (1/10)	10% (1/10)	Brahim Diaz
Marc Pubill	10% (1/10)	20% (1/5)	Arda Guler
Alejandro Baena	11% (1/9)
Iker Luque	17% (1/6)
Miguel Llorente	17% (1/6)

Total goals per player

	1	2
Alexander Soerloth	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	Vinicius Junior
Nico Gonzalez	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽⚽4	Kylian Mbappe
Ademola Lookman	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽2	Arda Guler
Julian Alvarez	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Jude Bellingham
Thiago Almada	⚽1	⚽⚽2	Gonzalo Garcia
Miguel Llorente	⚽1	⚽1	Federico Valverde
Alejandro Baena	⚽1	⚽1	Brahim Diaz
Antoine Griezmann	⚽1
Iker Luque	⚽1
Marc Pubill	⚽1

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	90%	100%
Over corners 7.5	80%	90%
Over corners 8.5	70%	90%
Over corners 9.5	60%	70%
Over corners 10.5	50%	70%
Over corners 11.5	40%	60%
Over corners 12.5	20%	40%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	90%	90%
Over corners 3.5	80%	90%
Over corners 4.5	80%	70%
Over corners 5.5	50%	50%
Over corners 6.5	40%	30%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	10%	10%
1.5	10%	0%
2.5	0%	0%
3.5	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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