Toluca - Leon: our prediction
26/04/2026•03:05
Toluca
4:1
(1:1)
Finished
Leon
-
1
-
X
-
2
Toluca vs Leon Preview — Liga MX Clausura
Toluca, favorite at home, faces Leon. Toluca has a low win rate (30%) but rarely loses when favored. Leon is in form with 60% wins in their last 10 matches. Both teams score often (70% for Toluca, 60% for Leon). Leon's matches tend to go over 2.5 goals (80%).
Our Toluca vs Leon predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Leon has seen over 2.5 goals in 80% of its last 10 matches, a very high number. Toluca is at 60%. Both teams tend to play open matches. The odds of 4.4 for this bet are very attractive given the statistics. Combined with the 'Both teams to score' bet, it is very likely that the total goals will exceed 2.5.
1.5
Confidence
Very high (80 %)
Leon scores over 1.5 goals
Leon has scored more than 1.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches (parou15). Toluca has conceded at least one goal in 80% of its matches (cleansheetno). Leon is in form and has a prolific striker (Diber Cambindo with 5 goals). Toluca's defense is weak, which should allow Leon to score at least twice.
2.48
Confidence
High (65 %)
Both teams to score
Toluca has seen both teams score in 70% of its last 10 matches, and Leon in 60%. Both teams have decent attacks but defenses that concede goals (Toluca kept a clean sheet only 2 times in 10, Leon as well). The odds (1.48 for Toluca) suggest a tight but open match. The fact that Toluca is favorite but with a porous defense reinforces this bet.
1.44
Confidence
High (65 %)
Market signals on Toluca vs Leon
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Toluca vs Leon Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 3 3 4 | 6 4 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 60% | 71% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 100% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 50% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 25% | 80% |
Win by being a favorite | 30% | 71% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 0% | 33% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 0% | 33% |
Win by being an outsider | 0% | 33% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 20% 80% | 20% 80% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 70% 30% | 60% 70% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 40% 60% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 60% 40% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 70% 30% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 10% 90% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 20% 80% | 60% 40% |
Leading at half-time | 50% 50% | 30% 70% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 0% | 40% |
2nd half | 90% | 30% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 90% 10% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 60% 40% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 40% 60% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 30% 70% | 30% 70% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 90% 10% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 50% 50% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 40% 60% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 20% 80% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Castro | 30% (3/10) | 50% (5/10) | Diber Cambindo |
| Paulinho | 50% (3/6) | 30% (3/10) | Ismael Diaz |
| Everardo Lopez | 22% (2/9) | 20% (2/10) | Fernando Beltran |
| Jorge Diaz | 13% (1/8) | 20% (2/10) | Daniel Arcila |
| Jesus Angulo | 10% (1/10) | 13% (1/8) | Juan Dominguez |
| Antonio Briseno | 11% (1/9) | 13% (1/8) | Miguel Rodriguez |
| Francisco Cordova | 10% (1/10) | ||
| Helinho | 17% (1/6) | ||
| Jesus Gallardo | 20% (1/5) | ||
| Fernando Arce | 10% (1/10) | ||
| Franco Rossi | 10% (1/10) |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Paulinho | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽7 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5 | Diber Cambindo |
| Nicolas Castro | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | Ismael Diaz |
| Everardo Lopez | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽2 | Fernando Beltran |
| Francisco Cordova | ⚽1 | ⚽⚽2 | Daniel Arcila |
| Jesus Gallardo | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Miguel Rodriguez |
| Jorge Diaz | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Juan Dominguez |
| Jesus Angulo | ⚽1 | ||
| Helinho | ⚽1 | ||
| Antonio Briseno | ⚽1 | ||
| Fernando Arce | ⚽1 | ||
| Franco Rossi | ⚽1 |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 80% | 100% |
Over corners 7.5 | 80% | 90% |
Over corners 8.5 | 80% | 70% |
Over corners 9.5 | 80% | 70% |
Over corners 10.5 | 30% | 70% |
Over corners 11.5 | 20% | 50% |
Over corners 12.5 | 10% | 30% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 50% | 70% |
Over corners 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
Over corners 4.5 | 40% | 50% |
Over corners 5.5 | 30% | 50% |
Over corners 6.5 | 30% | 40% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 100% | 90% |
1.5 | 60% | 70% |
2.5 | 40% | 10% |
3.5 | 10% | 10% |
4.5 | 0% | 10% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
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