Chelsea - Arsenal: our prediction
14/01/2026•21:00
Chelsea
2:3
(0:1)
Finished
Arsenal
-
1
-
X
-
2
Chelsea vs Arsenal Preview — EFL Cup
Chelsea hosts Arsenal in the EFL Cup. Arsenal is the bookmakers' favorite (odds 2.20). In their last 10 matches, Arsenal has 7 wins against Chelsea's 3. Both teams score frequently and matches often exceed 2.5 goals.
Our Chelsea vs Arsenal predictions
Over 2.5 goals in the match
Chelsea has seen 7 of its last 10 matches exceed 2.5 goals (70%), Arsenal also 7/10 (70%). Both teams show vulnerable defense (Chelsea: 2 clean sheets/10, Arsenal: 3/10) and active attack. Historical trend and recent statistics support an open match with several goals.
1.85
Confidence
High
Both teams to score
Chelsea has seen both teams score in 8 of its last 10 matches (80%), Arsenal in 7/10 (70%). Defenses are unreliable (clean sheet: Chelsea 20%, Arsenal 30%). With capable attacks (top scorers: Fernandez/Pedro for Chelsea; Martinelli/Trossard for Arsenal), each team is likely to find the net.
1.72
Confidence
High
Arsenal scores over 1.5 goals
Arsenal has scored over 1.5 goals in 6 of its last 10 matches (60%). Facing a Chelsea defense that has conceded at least 2 goals in several recent encounters, and with a varied attack (Martinelli 4 goals, Trossard 3, Rice 3), the Gunners have the ability to score at least twice.
1.88
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Chelsea vs Arsenal
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Chelsea vs Arsenal Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 3 4 3 | 7 2 1 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 67% | 90% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 100% | 83% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite | 33% | 70% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 100% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 0% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 20% 80% | 30% 70% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 80% 20% | 70% 80% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 40% 60% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 50% 50% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 70% 30% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 20% 80% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 30% 70% | 20% 80% |
Leading at half-time | 40% 60% | 40% 60% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 20% | 20% |
2nd half | 50% | 70% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 90% 10% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 90% 10% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 70% 30% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 40% 60% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 10% 90% | 30% 70% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 90% 10% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 50% 50% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 20% 80% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 10% 90% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 10% 90% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernandez | 33% (3/9) | 30% (3/10) | Viktor Gyoekeres |
| Joao Pedro | 25% (2/8) | 25% (2/8) | Kai Havertz |
| Andrey Santos | 20% (2/10) | 22% (2/9) | Bukayo Saka |
| Alejandro Garnacho | 13% (1/8) | 10% (1/10) | Noni Madueke |
| Jorrel Hato | 10% (1/10) | 10% (1/10) | Eberechi Eze |
| Cole Palmer | 11% (1/9) | 11% (1/9) | Leandro Trossard |
| Tosin Adarabioyo | 13% (1/8) | 11% (1/9) | Gabriel Jesus |
| Estevao | 33% (1/3) |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernandez | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | Viktor Gyoekeres |
| Joao Pedro | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽2 | Kai Havertz |
| Andrey Santos | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽2 | Bukayo Saka |
| Estevao | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Eberechi Eze |
| Cole Palmer | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Leandro Trossard |
| Tosin Adarabioyo | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Gabriel Jesus |
| Alejandro Garnacho | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Noni Madueke |
| Jorrel Hato | ⚽1 |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 80% | 50% |
Over corners 7.5 | 70% | 50% |
Over corners 8.5 | 70% | 40% |
Over corners 9.5 | 70% | 30% |
Over corners 10.5 | 40% | 20% |
Over corners 11.5 | 30% | 20% |
Over corners 12.5 | 30% | 0% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 70% | 90% |
Over corners 3.5 | 70% | 50% |
Over corners 4.5 | 50% | 50% |
Over corners 5.5 | 40% | 30% |
Over corners 6.5 | 30% | 30% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 30% | 30% |
1.5 | 20% | 20% |
2.5 | 20% | 10% |
3.5 | 10% | 0% |
4.5 | 0% | 0% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
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