AZ Alkmaar - Ajax: our prediction
14/01/2026•21:00
AZ Alkmaar
6:0
(3:0)
Finished
Ajax
-
1
-
X
-
2
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Preview — KNVB Cup
In the round of 16 of the KNVB Cup, AZ Alkmaar hosts Ajax at home. AZ is a slight favorite according to bookmakers, but Ajax is in solid form with 70% wins in the last 10 matches. An open match with goals is expected.
Our AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax predictions
Over 2.5 goals
The offensive statistics of both teams are convincing: AZ exceeded 2.5 goals in 60% of its last 10 matches, Ajax in 70%. The attacking tendency and sometimes fragile defenses suggest a match with at least 3 goals.
1.45
Confidence
High
Both teams to score
AZ scored in 80% of recent matches, Ajax in 90%. Both teams have capable attacks, and defenses have shown weaknesses (clean sheet only 40% for AZ, 30% for Ajax). A goal each is plausible.
1.44
Confidence
Medium
AZ Alkmaar to win
AZ Alkmaar plays at home and is the bookmakers' favorite with odds of 2.15. In the last 10 matches, they have won 4 times (40%). Against an in-form Ajax, home advantage could be decisive. No information on major absences was found.
1.85
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 4 2 4 | 7 1 2 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 86% | 83% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 100% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 33% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 0% | 100% |
Win by being a favorite | 57% | 83% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 0% | 67% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 0% | 25% |
Win by being an outsider | 0% | 25% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 40% 60% | 30% 70% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 50% 50% | 60% 50% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 40% 60% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 50% 50% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 70% 30% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 20% 80% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 40% 60% | 60% 40% |
Leading at half-time | 30% 70% | 60% 40% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 40% | 10% |
2nd half | 40% | 40% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 90% 10% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 70% 30% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 60% 40% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 50% 50% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 20% 80% | 30% 70% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 80% 20% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 50% 50% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 30% 70% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 100% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 100% | 10% 90% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Mijnans | 40% (4/10) | 50% (5/10) | Mika Godts |
| Troy Parrott | 33% (3/9) | 38% (3/8) | Wout Weghorst |
| Peer Koopmeiners | 40% (2/5) | 50% (3/6) | Davy Klaassen |
| Mexx Meerdink | 20% (2/10) | 20% (2/10) | Anton Gaaei |
| Mees de Wit | 13% (1/8) | 20% (2/10) | Steven Berghuis |
| Matej Sin | 11% (1/9) | 10% (1/10) | Oscar Gloukh |
| Jordy Clasie | 14% (1/7) | 10% (1/10) | Sean Steur |
| Mateo Chavez | 11% (1/9) | 10% (1/10) | Jorthy Mokio |
| Kees Smit | 13% (1/8) | ||
| Isak Steiner Jensen | 11% (1/9) |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Mijnans | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5 | Mika Godts |
| Troy Parrott | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Wout Weghorst |
| Peer Koopmeiners | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Steven Berghuis |
| Mexx Meerdink | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Davy Klaassen |
| Kees Smit | ⚽1 | ⚽⚽2 | Anton Gaaei |
| Jordy Clasie | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Sean Steur |
| Mateo Chavez | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Jorthy Mokio |
| Matej Sin | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Oscar Gloukh |
| Mees de Wit | ⚽1 | ||
| Isak Steiner Jensen | ⚽1 |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 80% | 90% |
Over corners 7.5 | 80% | 90% |
Over corners 8.5 | 80% | 60% |
Over corners 9.5 | 70% | 60% |
Over corners 10.5 | 50% | 40% |
Over corners 11.5 | 50% | 20% |
Over corners 12.5 | 50% | 20% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 90% | 80% |
Over corners 3.5 | 80% | 50% |
Over corners 4.5 | 70% | 40% |
Over corners 5.5 | 60% | 40% |
Over corners 6.5 | 50% | 30% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 0% | 10% |
1.5 | 0% | 0% |
2.5 | 0% | 0% |
3.5 | 0% | 0% |
4.5 | 0% | 0% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
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