Rugby

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USA - Japan: our prediction

18/04/2026•03:00

USA

3:0

(0:0)

Finished

Japan

USA vs Japan Preview — Friendlies

Friendly match between the United States (at home) and Japan. The United States are favorites with odds of 1.94, showing excellent recent form with 9 wins in their last 10 matches. Japan, struggling away from home, has won only 1 of its last 5 away matches. Statistics suggest a potentially one-sided match with a solid American defense.

Our USA vs Japan predictions

United States Victory

The United States are in excellent form with 9 wins in their last 10 matches (90% success rate). At home and favorites with bookmakers (odds 1.94), they have a 'Does not lose when favorite' indicator at 90% over 10 matches. Japan has a low away win rate (1 out of last 5 matches) and a defense that often concedes (clean sheet only 3 times in 10). No information on major absences was found. American superiority, especially defensive (8 clean sheets in 10), should be confirmed.

1.89

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Statistical analysis shows a balance: 'Over 2.5 goals' succeeded 5 times out of 10 for the USA and 6 times out of 10 for Japan. However, the most likely scenario is a controlled American victory (2-0, 1-0). The American defense (80% clean sheets) strongly limits the total number of goals. Japan, ineffective away from home, should struggle to score. Therefore, the 'Under 2.5 goals' bet (successful 5 times out of 10 for the USA, 4 times out of 10 for Japan) is consistent with an American victory without offensive extravagance.

1.95

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on USA vs Japan

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

USA vs Japan Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	USA	Japan
Win	9 1	4 1 5
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	90%	60%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	50%	50%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	0%	0%
Win by being a favorite	90%	33%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	25%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	25%
Win by being an outsider	0%	25%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	80% 20%	30% 70%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	10% 90%	60% 10%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	20% 80%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	70% 30%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	80% 20%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	30% 70%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	30% 70%	20% 80%
Leading at half-time	70% 30%	40% 60%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	30%	20%
2nd half	50%	50%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	70% 30%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	50% 50%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	30% 70%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	30% 70%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	90% 10%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	70% 30%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	40% 60%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	30% 70%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	30% 70%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Ally Sentnor	25% (2/8)	33% (1/3)	Maika Hamano
Emma Sears	20% (2/10)	33% (1/3)	Riko Ueki
Trinity Rodman	25% (2/8)	33% (1/3)	Mina Tanaka
Lindsey Heaps	25% (2/8)
Jaedyn Shaw	25% (2/8)
Catarina Macario	100% (2/2)
Rose Lavelle	25% (2/8)
Croix Bethune	33% (1/3)
Alyssa Thompson	14% (1/7)
Jameese Joseph	11% (1/9)
Kennedy Wesley	11% (1/9)
Naomi Girma	13% (1/8)
Emily Sams	13% (1/8)
Olivia Moultrie	10% (1/10)
Reilyn Turner	50% (1/2)

Total goals per player

	1	2
Ally Sentnor	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽1	Maika Hamano
Catarina Macario	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽1	Mina Tanaka
Jaedyn Shaw	⚽⚽2	⚽1	Riko Ueki
Lindsey Heaps	⚽⚽2
Trinity Rodman	⚽⚽2
Emma Sears	⚽⚽2
Rose Lavelle	⚽⚽2
Reilyn Turner	⚽1
Emily Sams	⚽1
Naomi Girma	⚽1
Olivia Moultrie	⚽1
Jameese Joseph	⚽1
Kennedy Wesley	⚽1
Croix Bethune	⚽1
Alyssa Thompson	⚽1

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	100%	50%
Over corners 7.5	67%	50%
Over corners 8.5	67%	50%
Over corners 9.5	50%	25%
Over corners 10.5	33%	0%
Over corners 11.5	17%	0%
Over corners 12.5	0%	0%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	0%	0%
Over corners 3.5	0%	0%
Over corners 4.5	0%	0%
Over corners 5.5	0%	0%
Over corners 6.5	0%	0%

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