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Marseille - Toulouse: our prediction

04/03/2026•21:00

Marseille

2:2

(1:1)

Finished AP

3 tab 4

Toulouse

Marseille vs Toulouse Preview — Coupe de France

Marseille hosts Toulouse in the French Cup. Bookmakers favor Marseille with odds at 1.62. In their last 10 matches, Marseille has won 4, drawn 2, and lost 4. Toulouse has a similar record with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses. Statistics show a strong goal trend for Marseille (Over 2.5 at 90%) and a more solid defense from Toulouse away.

Our Marseille vs Toulouse predictions

Over 2.5 goals in the match

The statistics are very clear: in Marseille's last 10 matches, 9 have exceeded 2.5 goals (90%). Even away, Toulouse has seen 3 of its last 10 matches exceed this limit. Marseille's attack (Gouiri 5 goals, Aubameyang 4, Greenwood 4) is prolific, but its defense is fragile (only 1 clean sheet in 10). Toulouse can take advantage of these weaknesses to score, thus contributing to a high total goals.

1.82

Confidence

Very high

Marseille Win

Marseille is clearly the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.62). In their last 10 matches, they have a win rate of 40% (4/10) and a non-loss rate of 60% when favored. Their attack is performing well with 9 out of 10 matches seeing over 2.5 goals. At home against a Toulouse that struggles to win away (0 wins in last 10 away matches), an OM victory is the most likely scenario.

1.79

Confidence

High

Both teams to score

This bet is supported by the defensive tendencies of both teams. Marseille has kept only one clean sheet in its last 10 matches. Toulouse, for its part, has scored in 7 of its last 10 away matches. With in-form attackers on both sides (Gouiri, Aubameyang for OM; Gboho, Vignolo for Toulouse) and unconvincing defenses, both nets are likely to ripple. However, Toulouse's occasional defensive solidity away (3 clean sheets in 10) slightly tempers confidence.

1.72

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Marseille vs Toulouse

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Marseille vs Toulouse Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Marseille	Toulouse
Win	4 2 4	3 3 4
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	75%	67%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	100%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	50%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	40%	29%
Win by being a favorite	50%	33%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	0%
Win by being an outsider	0%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	10% 90%	30% 70%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	50% 50%	40% 50%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	100%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	50% 50%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	20% 80%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	50% 50%	30% 70%
Leading at half-time	50% 50%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	30%	40%
2nd half	60%	40%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	100%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	90% 10%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	60% 40%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	30% 70%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	60% 40%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	40% 60%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	10% 90%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	10% 90%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Amine Gouiri	33% (3/9)	30% (3/10)	Emersonn
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	22% (2/9)	25% (2/8)	Dayann Methalie
Mason Greenwood	22% (2/9)	10% (1/10)	Warren Kamanzi
Pierre-Emile Hoejbjerg	20% (2/10)	10% (1/10)	Rasmus Nicolaisen
Igor Paixao	11% (1/9)	11% (1/9)	Santiago Hidalgo
Hamed Traore	14% (1/7)	13% (1/8)	Yann Gboho
Ethan Nwaneri	10% (1/10)	11% (1/9)	Aron Doennum
		11% (1/9)	Cristian Casseres Jr.
		11% (1/9)	Mario Sauer
		10% (1/10)	Seny Koumbassa
		10% (1/10)	Jacen Russell-Rowe

Total goals per player

	1	2
Amine Gouiri	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽3	Emersonn
Mason Greenwood	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Yann Gboho
Pierre-Emile Hoejbjerg	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Dayann Methalie
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	⚽⚽2	⚽1	Seny Koumbassa
Ethan Nwaneri	⚽1	⚽1	Jacen Russell-Rowe
Hamed Traore	⚽1	⚽1	Aron Doennum
Igor Paixao	⚽1	⚽1	Cristian Casseres Jr.
		⚽1	Mario Sauer
		⚽1	Rasmus Nicolaisen
		⚽1	Santiago Hidalgo
		⚽1	Warren Kamanzi

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	70%	90%
Over corners 7.5	60%	80%
Over corners 8.5	40%	70%
Over corners 9.5	30%	50%
Over corners 10.5	20%	40%
Over corners 11.5	10%	20%
Over corners 12.5	10%	20%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	50%	60%
Over corners 3.5	50%	60%
Over corners 4.5	40%	60%
Over corners 5.5	30%	40%
Over corners 6.5	30%	20%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	90%	90%
1.5	70%	50%
2.5	50%	40%
3.5	40%	10%
4.5	10%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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