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Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao: our prediction

04/03/2026•21:00

Real Sociedad

1:0

(0:0)

Finished

Athletic Bilbao

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Preview — Copa del Rey

Real Sociedad hosts Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Rey. Real, slight favorites, show good attacking form but a leaky defense. Athletic, solid away from home, scores regularly. A tight match with likely goals.

Our Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao predictions

Both teams to score

In the last 10 matches, Real Sociedad has seen both teams score in 80% of cases (8/10). Athletic Bilbao has an even higher rate of 90% (9/10). Both defenses rarely keep clean sheets (Real: 2/10, Athletic: 0/10). The attacks are productive (Real: Oyarzabal 6 goals, Guedes 4; Athletic: Guruzeta 4, Navarro 3). An open Copa del Rey match favors this scenario.

1.8

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 goals

Statistics from the last 10 matches show that Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 70% of cases for both teams (7/10). Real Sociedad has scored 22 goals and conceded 16 in this period, Athletic has scored 18 and conceded 13. The average goals per match is high. The offensive dynamic of both sides, combined with sometimes fragile defenses (rare clean sheets), supports the probability of a match with over 2 goals.

2.05

Confidence

Medium

Real Sociedad to win

Real Sociedad is slightly favored by bookmakers (odds at 2.15). In the last 10 matches, they have won 6 times (60%), compared to 5 for Athletic (50%). At home, Real is solid and benefits from the home advantage. However, Athletic Bilbao is a competitive and hard-to-beat team (only 3 defeats in 10). Confidence is limited due to the closeness of the two teams and the cup context, but the favorite status and home factor give Real a slight edge.

2.32

Confidence

Low

Market signals on Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Real Sociedad	Athletic Bilbao
Win	6 3 1	5 2 3
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	100%	80%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	33%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	100%	33%
Win by being a favorite	67%	60%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	75%	60%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	50%	40%
Win by being an outsider	50%	40%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	20% 80%	100%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	80% 20%	90% 80%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	20% 80%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	70% 30%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	80% 20%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	10% 90%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	40% 60%	40% 60%
Leading at half-time	50% 50%	20% 80%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	40%	30%
2nd half	40%	50%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	80% 20%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	70% 30%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	60% 40%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	30% 70%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	100%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	60% 40%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	40% 60%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	100%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Orri Oskarsson	56% (5/9)	40% (4/10)	Gorka Guruzeta
Mikel Oyarzabal	30% (3/10)	29% (2/7)	Oihan Sancet
Aihen Munoz	20% (2/10)	17% (1/6)	Nico Williams
Jon Martin	22% (2/9)	10% (1/10)	Robert Navarro
Luka Sucic	20% (2/10)	11% (1/9)	Aitor Paredes
Brais Mendez	10% (1/10)	11% (1/9)	Urko Izeta
Carlos Soler	10% (1/10)	11% (1/9)	Daniel Vivian
Pablo Marin	10% (1/10)	10% (1/10)	Inaki Williams
Ander Barrenetxea	13% (1/8)

Total goals per player

	1	2
Orri Oskarsson	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	⚽⚽⚽⚽4	Gorka Guruzeta
Mikel Oyarzabal	⚽⚽⚽⚽4	⚽⚽2	Nico Williams
Luka Sucic	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Oihan Sancet
Jon Martin	⚽⚽2	⚽1	Aitor Paredes
Aihen Munoz	⚽⚽2	⚽1	Robert Navarro
Brais Mendez	⚽1	⚽1	Inaki Williams
Carlos Soler	⚽1	⚽1	Daniel Vivian
Pablo Marin	⚽1	⚽1	Urko Izeta
Ander Barrenetxea	⚽1

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	80%	80%
Over corners 7.5	80%	50%
Over corners 8.5	70%	40%
Over corners 9.5	50%	20%
Over corners 10.5	30%	10%
Over corners 11.5	20%	10%
Over corners 12.5	20%	10%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	70%	90%
Over corners 3.5	60%	70%
Over corners 4.5	50%	30%
Over corners 5.5	50%	20%
Over corners 6.5	20%	0%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	100%	100%
1.5	70%	80%
2.5	30%	50%
3.5	10%	20%
4.5	0%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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