Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao: our prediction
04/03/2026•21:00
Real Sociedad
1:0
(0:0)
Finished
Athletic Bilbao
-
1
-
X
-
2
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Preview — Copa del Rey
Real Sociedad hosts Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Rey. Real, slight favorites, show good attacking form but a leaky defense. Athletic, solid away from home, scores regularly. A tight match with likely goals.
Our Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao predictions
Both teams to score
In the last 10 matches, Real Sociedad has seen both teams score in 80% of cases (8/10). Athletic Bilbao has an even higher rate of 90% (9/10). Both defenses rarely keep clean sheets (Real: 2/10, Athletic: 0/10). The attacks are productive (Real: Oyarzabal 6 goals, Guedes 4; Athletic: Guruzeta 4, Navarro 3). An open Copa del Rey match favors this scenario.
1.8
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 goals
Statistics from the last 10 matches show that Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 70% of cases for both teams (7/10). Real Sociedad has scored 22 goals and conceded 16 in this period, Athletic has scored 18 and conceded 13. The average goals per match is high. The offensive dynamic of both sides, combined with sometimes fragile defenses (rare clean sheets), supports the probability of a match with over 2 goals.
2.05
Confidence
Medium
Real Sociedad to win
Real Sociedad is slightly favored by bookmakers (odds at 2.15). In the last 10 matches, they have won 6 times (60%), compared to 5 for Athletic (50%). At home, Real is solid and benefits from the home advantage. However, Athletic Bilbao is a competitive and hard-to-beat team (only 3 defeats in 10). Confidence is limited due to the closeness of the two teams and the cup context, but the favorite status and home factor give Real a slight edge.
2.32
Confidence
Low
Market signals on Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 6 3 1 | 5 2 3 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 100% | 80% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 33% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 100% | 33% |
Win by being a favorite | 67% | 60% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 75% | 60% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 50% | 40% |
Win by being an outsider | 50% | 40% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 20% 80% | 100% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 80% 20% | 90% 80% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 20% 80% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 70% 30% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 80% 20% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 10% 90% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 40% 60% | 40% 60% |
Leading at half-time | 50% 50% | 20% 80% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 40% | 30% |
2nd half | 40% | 50% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 80% 20% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 70% 30% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 60% 40% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 30% 70% | 30% 70% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 100% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 60% 40% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 40% 60% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 100% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Orri Oskarsson | 56% (5/9) | 40% (4/10) | Gorka Guruzeta |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 30% (3/10) | 29% (2/7) | Oihan Sancet |
| Aihen Munoz | 20% (2/10) | 17% (1/6) | Nico Williams |
| Jon Martin | 22% (2/9) | 10% (1/10) | Robert Navarro |
| Luka Sucic | 20% (2/10) | 11% (1/9) | Aitor Paredes |
| Brais Mendez | 10% (1/10) | 11% (1/9) | Urko Izeta |
| Carlos Soler | 10% (1/10) | 11% (1/9) | Daniel Vivian |
| Pablo Marin | 10% (1/10) | 10% (1/10) | Inaki Williams |
| Ander Barrenetxea | 13% (1/8) |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Orri Oskarsson | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | Gorka Guruzeta |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | ⚽⚽2 | Nico Williams |
| Luka Sucic | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽2 | Oihan Sancet |
| Jon Martin | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽1 | Aitor Paredes |
| Aihen Munoz | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽1 | Robert Navarro |
| Brais Mendez | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Inaki Williams |
| Carlos Soler | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Daniel Vivian |
| Pablo Marin | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Urko Izeta |
| Ander Barrenetxea | ⚽1 |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 80% | 80% |
Over corners 7.5 | 80% | 50% |
Over corners 8.5 | 70% | 40% |
Over corners 9.5 | 50% | 20% |
Over corners 10.5 | 30% | 10% |
Over corners 11.5 | 20% | 10% |
Over corners 12.5 | 20% | 10% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 70% | 90% |
Over corners 3.5 | 60% | 70% |
Over corners 4.5 | 50% | 30% |
Over corners 5.5 | 50% | 20% |
Over corners 6.5 | 20% | 0% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 100% | 100% |
1.5 | 70% | 80% |
2.5 | 30% | 50% |
3.5 | 10% | 20% |
4.5 | 0% | 0% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
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