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Wrexham - Chelsea: our prediction

07/03/2026•18:45

Wrexham

2:4

(1:1)

Finished AET

ap. 2 - 2

Chelsea

Wrexham vs Chelsea Preview — FA Cup

Wrexham, a League One team, faces Chelsea, a Premier League giant, in the FA Cup. Chelsea is the heavy favorite with odds of 1.4, reflecting the gap in level. Wrexham, at home, has shown resilience and scoring ability, but Chelsea's defense, although not perfect, should make the difference.

Our Wrexham vs Chelsea predictions

Chelsea Win

Chelsea is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.4). Over the last 10 matches, Chelsea has a win rate of 60% (6/10) and a win rate as favorite of 75% (6/8). Wrexham, although resilient at home (6 wins out of 10), lost 2 out of 6 games as favorite. The quality gap, especially offensively (Joao Pedro 9 goals, Cole Palmer 5 goals), should prevail. Chelsea's defense (1 clean sheet in 10) suggests a possible goal for Wrexham, but not enough to create an upset.

1.54

Confidence

High

Both Teams to Score

Statistics strongly support this scenario. Wrexham has scored at least one goal in 9 of its last 10 matches (90%, 'parou05'). Chelsea has scored in 9 of its last 10 matches (90%, 'parou05'). Defensively, Wrexham has kept only 3 clean sheets in 10, and Chelsea only 1 in 10. 'Both Teams to Score' has occurred in 60% of Wrexham's matches (6/10) and 80% of Chelsea's (8/10). With Chelsea's prolific attack and Wrexham's ability to score at home, both nets should ripple.

1.7

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Goals in the Match

This bet is supported by Chelsea's strong offensive trend (Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of its last 10 matches) and Wrexham's defensive vulnerability (Over 2.5 goals landed in 50% of its matches). The most likely scenario is a Chelsea win with at least 3 total goals (e.g., 1-2, 1-3). However, Chelsea sometimes has more controlled matches (2 missed clean sheets out of 10 do not always mean many goals conceded). Confidence is medium because Wrexham could limit the damage at home, but Chelsea's offensive power pushes towards the Over.

1.63

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Wrexham vs Chelsea

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Wrexham vs Chelsea Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Wrexham	Chelsea
Win	6 2 2	6 2 2
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	67%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	40%	100%
Win by being a favorite	50%	75%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	100%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	75%	0%
Win by being an outsider	75%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	30% 70%	10% 90%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	60% 40%	80% 60%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	50% 50%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	70% 30%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	20% 80%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	30% 70%	50% 50%
Leading at half-time	40% 60%	60% 40%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	40%	40%
2nd half	50%	50%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	70% 30%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	50% 50%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	30% 70%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	20% 80%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	90% 10%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	40% 60%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	20% 80%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	10% 90%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	10% 90%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Josh Windass	60% (6/10)	33% (3/9)	Enzo Fernandez
Sam Smith	20% (2/10)	20% (2/10)	Andrey Santos
Oliver Rathbone	10% (1/10)	25% (2/8)	Joao Pedro
Nathan Broadhead	10% (1/10)	13% (1/8)	Alejandro Garnacho
George Thomason	10% (1/10)	11% (1/9)	Cole Palmer
George Dobson	13% (1/8)	13% (1/8)	Tosin Adarabioyo
Max Cleworth	10% (1/10)	33% (1/3)	Estevao
		10% (1/10)	Jorrel Hato

Total goals per player

	1	2
Josh Windass	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽6	⚽⚽⚽3	Enzo Fernandez
Sam Smith	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Joao Pedro
Nathan Broadhead	⚽1	⚽⚽2	Andrey Santos
George Thomason	⚽1	⚽1	Estevao
Max Cleworth	⚽1	⚽1	Cole Palmer
Oliver Rathbone	⚽1	⚽1	Tosin Adarabioyo
George Dobson	⚽1	⚽1	Alejandro Garnacho
		⚽1	Jorrel Hato

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	80%	80%
Over corners 7.5	60%	60%
Over corners 8.5	50%	60%
Over corners 9.5	40%	50%
Over corners 10.5	30%	50%
Over corners 11.5	20%	30%
Over corners 12.5	10%	20%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	80%	90%
Over corners 3.5	50%	90%
Over corners 4.5	50%	60%
Over corners 5.5	30%	40%
Over corners 6.5	30%	40%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	60%	100%
1.5	30%	80%
2.5	20%	50%
3.5	10%	20%
4.5	10%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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