Arsenal - Atletico Madrid: our prediction
05/05/2026•21:00
Arsenal
1:0
(1:0)
Finished
Atletico Madrid
-
1
-
X
-
2
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Preview — Champions League Final Stage
Arsenal, home favorite, faces Atlético Madrid in a Champions League final. The Gunners have a 40% win rate in their last 10 games, while Atlético has an 80% rate for 'Both teams to score' and 70% for 'Over 2.5 goals'. Arsenal shows a solid defense with 50% clean sheets, but Atlético's attack is prolific.
Our Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid predictions
Both teams to score
Atlético Madrid has seen both teams score in 80% of their last 10 matches, while Arsenal has a 40% rate. However, the final and Arsenal's defensive solidity (50% clean sheets) could limit chances. Atlético's offensive trend and the need for goals from both sides make this bet likely.
1.84
Confidence
High (65 %)
2.5 (Over goals per match)
Atlético Madrid has seen over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 10 matches, a strong trend. Arsenal is more measured at 40%. Combined with the fact that both teams should score (BTS), a total of over 2.5 goals is a very plausible scenario in a final that could be open.
1.87
Confidence
High (65 %)
Win
Arsenal is the home favorite with odds of 1.62, but their win rate is only 40% in the last 10 matches. Atlético Madrid is strong away. Arsenal's victory is possible but far from certain, hence a medium confidence level. The bet relies on home advantage and favorite status.
1.62
Confidence
Medium (50 %)
Market signals on Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 4 2 4 | 3 2 5 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 67% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 60% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 0% | 100% |
Win by being a favorite | 44% | 50% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 0% | 38% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 0% | 25% |
Win by being an outsider | 0% | 25% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 50% 50% | 20% 80% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 40% 60% | 80% 40% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 50% 50% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 60% 40% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 70% 30% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 10% 90% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 30% 70% | 50% 50% |
Leading at half-time | 40% 60% | 20% 80% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 40% | 50% |
2nd half | 30% | 30% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 90% 10% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 70% 30% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 40% 60% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 100% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 100% | 30% 70% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 80% 20% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 20% 80% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 10% 90% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Gyoekeres | 40% (4/10) | 38% (3/8) | Julian Alvarez |
| Kai Havertz | 25% (2/8) | 25% (2/8) | Alexander Soerloth |
| Bukayo Saka | 29% (2/7) | 25% (2/8) | Ademola Lookman |
| Eberechi Eze | 14% (1/7) | 33% (2/6) | Nico Gonzalez |
10% (1/10) | Antoine Griezmann | ||
11% (1/9) | Giuliano Simeone | ||
50% (1/2) | Iker Luque | ||
10% (1/10) | Alejandro Baena | ||
50% (1/2) | Miguel Llorente | ||
11% (1/9) | Javier Bonar | ||
11% (1/9) | Thiago Almada |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Gyoekeres | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Alexander Soerloth |
| Kai Havertz | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Nico Gonzalez |
| Bukayo Saka | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Julian Alvarez |
| Eberechi Eze | ⚽1 | ⚽⚽2 | Ademola Lookman |
⚽1 | Giuliano Simeone | ||
⚽1 | Thiago Almada | ||
⚽1 | Miguel Llorente | ||
⚽1 | Javier Bonar | ||
⚽1 | Antoine Griezmann | ||
⚽1 | Iker Luque | ||
⚽1 | Alejandro Baena |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 90% | 80% |
Over corners 7.5 | 60% | 60% |
Over corners 8.5 | 60% | 40% |
Over corners 9.5 | 50% | 40% |
Over corners 10.5 | 50% | 30% |
Over corners 11.5 | 30% | 20% |
Over corners 12.5 | 30% | 10% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 90% | 60% |
Over corners 3.5 | 70% | 40% |
Over corners 4.5 | 60% | 40% |
Over corners 5.5 | 50% | 30% |
Over corners 6.5 | 50% | 10% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 60% | 80% |
1.5 | 30% | 70% |
2.5 | 10% | 50% |
3.5 | 0% | 30% |
4.5 | 0% | 10% |
5.5 | 0% | 10% |
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