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Crystal Palace - Fiorentina: our prediction

09/04/2026•21:00

Crystal Palace

3:0

(2:0)

Finished

Fiorentina

Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina Preview — Conference League Final Stage

Crystal Palace hosts Fiorentina in the Conference League final. Bookmakers have Palace as the favorite (odds 1.7) despite recent mixed form (4W, 4D, 2L). Fiorentina, away from home, has an excellent record as an outsider (6/9) and a strong trend towards matches with over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams score in 50% of Palace's matches and 40% of Fiorentina's.

Our Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina predictions

Crystal Palace Win

Crystal Palace is playing at home and is the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.7). In the last 10 matches, Palace has a win rate of 40% (4/10) and has lost only twice. Fiorentina, away from home, has a win rate of 60% (6/10) but has mainly excelled as an outsider. However, Palace has good defensive solidity at home (5 clean sheets in 10) and the home advantage should make the difference in a final.

1.56

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 goals in the match

Fiorentina has a strong trend towards matches with over 2.5 goals: 60% in its last 10 matches (6/10). Crystal Palace has a lower statistic (30%, 3/10) but is playing at home with a need for a result. The attacking statistics are encouraging: Palace scores on average, and Fiorentina has good offensive efficiency away from home. The final, often open, and the stakes could generate several chances and goals. The combination of Fiorentina's attack and the pressure on Palace favors a match with at least 3 goals.

1.95

Confidence

High

Both teams to score

Crystal Palace has seen both teams score in 50% of its last 10 matches (5/10). Fiorentina has a slightly lower statistic of 40% (4/10). Palace has scored at least one goal in 80% of its matches (8/10 'over 0.5 per team'), while Fiorentina has done so in 70% (7/10). Both teams have in-form attackers: Sarr (4 goals) for Palace, Piccoli (3 goals) for Fiorentina. The pressure of a final could lead to goals from both sides.

1.98

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Crystal Palace	Fiorentina
Win	4 4 2	6 2 2
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	86%	78%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	50%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	0%	80%
Win by being a favorite	29%	67%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	67%	100%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	67%	0%
Win by being an outsider	67%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	50% 50%	40% 60%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	50% 50%	40% 50%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	40% 60%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	60% 40%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	20% 80%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	20% 80%	20% 80%
Leading at half-time	50% 50%	20% 80%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	20%	20%
2nd half	30%	60%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	80% 20%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	60% 40%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	30% 70%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	20% 80%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	10% 90%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	80% 20%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	30% 70%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	10% 90%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	100%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Ismaila Sarr	40% (4/10)	20% (2/10)	Cher Ndour
Jean-Philippe Mateta	30% (3/10)	11% (1/9)	Rolando Mandragora
Joergen Strand Larsen	10% (1/10)	11% (1/9)	Nicolo Fagioli
Daniel Munoz	10% (1/10)	10% (1/10)	Jack Harrison
Adam Wharton	10% (1/10)	13% (1/8)	Roberto Piccoli
Daichi Kamada	10% (1/10)	11% (1/9)	Albert Gudmundsson
		11% (1/9)	Robin Gosens

Total goals per player

	1	2
Ismaila Sarr	⚽⚽⚽⚽4	⚽⚽2	Cher Ndour
Jean-Philippe Mateta	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽1	Nicolo Fagioli
Daichi Kamada	⚽1	⚽1	Jack Harrison
Daniel Munoz	⚽1	⚽1	Roberto Piccoli
Adam Wharton	⚽1	⚽1	Robin Gosens
Joergen Strand Larsen	⚽1	⚽1	Rolando Mandragora
		⚽1	Albert Gudmundsson

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	90%	100%
Over corners 7.5	80%	60%
Over corners 8.5	60%	40%
Over corners 9.5	40%	30%
Over corners 10.5	20%	10%
Over corners 11.5	0%	0%
Over corners 12.5	0%	0%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	90%	80%
Over corners 3.5	70%	70%
Over corners 4.5	60%	50%
Over corners 5.5	50%	40%
Over corners 6.5	40%	20%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	100%	90%
1.5	80%	80%
2.5	50%	70%
3.5	20%	20%
4.5	10%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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