Pafos FC - AEL Limassol: our prediction

Pafos FC is clearly the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.53). In the last 10 matches, Pafos has decent home form with 40% wins and, most importantly, does not lose when favored in 89% of cases (8/9). AEL Limassol has very weak away form with 60% losses in the last 10 matches and rarely wins as an outsider (1/5). Pafos' attack (Jaja, 4 goals in 8 matches) should make the difference against an AEL defense that often concedes (clean sheet only 20% of the time).

In the last 10 matches, Pafos played 60% of its matches with under 2.5 goals. AEL Limassol has a rate of 30% for this same indicator, but its away attack is not very prolific (scores in 80% of matches but often 1 goal). Furthermore, Pafos rarely scores more than 1.5 goals per match (only 30% parou15). The overall trend leans towards a tight match with a limited total of goals, probably 2-1 or 1-1.

The 'Both teams to score' statistic occurs in 50% of Pafos' last matches and 60% of AEL Limassol's. Pafos has a defense that keeps a clean sheet in 40% of cases, but AEL has attackers capable of scoring away (Luther Singh, 3 goals). Conversely, AEL often concedes (clean sheet only 20%) and Pafos, at home, scores in 80% of its matches (parou05). The scenario of a goal on each side is therefore plausible.