Greece - Spain: our prediction

Spain is clearly the favorite. Statistics show a 50% win probability for Spain versus 40% for Greece. Spain also has a better ability to win as an outsider (30%) and a more solid defense (50% probability of the opponent losing). Greece, despite playing at home, has a 0% probability of winning as an outsider, indicating difficulties against stronger teams.

Greece has a strong tendency to exceed the total goals in the first half (60% probability). However, Spain has only a 30% probability for the same indicator. The bet is based on the idea that Greece, playing at home, could maintain its offensive pace in the first period, potentially against a Spanish defense that might take time to settle. The second half shows more extreme statistics (100% for Greece, 40% for Spain), but the choice falls on the first half due to the available odds and the home team's offensive profile.