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Lucrezia Stefanini - Erika Andreeva: our prediction

21/04/2025•18:00

#125

Lucrezia Stefanini

2:0

7•5

6•4

Finished

#71

Erika Andreeva

Lucrezia Stefanini vs Erika Andreeva Preview — Madrid Open, Qualification

Lucrezia Stefanini (ranked 157th) faces Erika Andreeva (ranked 100th) in the first round of Madrid Open qualifying. Stefanini, more experienced on clay, shows mixed recent form (4 wins in last 10 matches). Andreeva, younger and higher-ranked, has slightly poorer form (3/10) but benefits from favorite status. No injuries reported. The match could be tight, with a tendency towards two-set matches for both players.

Our Lucrezia Stefanini vs Erika Andreeva predictions

Under 2.5 sets

Statistics from the last 10 matches (excluding Grand Slams) show both players finish their matches in 2 sets 60% of the time. Stefanini has 50% two-set matches as favorite, Andreeva 60%. The probability of a 3-set match is 40% for each. The odds of 1.5 for Under 2.5 sets offer good value.

1.5

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games

The prediction of a 2-set match (Under 2.5 sets) reduces the potential total number of games. If Andreeva wins as favorite, her matches often end in 2 sets (60%). A 2-set scenario with tight scores (e.g., 6-4, 6-4) gives 20 games, well below the limit. Even a short 3-set match could stay under the threshold. The odds of 1.9 are attractive.

1.6

Confidence

Medium

Erika Andreeva to win

Andreeva is higher-ranked (100th vs 157th) and designated as the favorite. Her statistics as favorite are solid (50% win rate overall, 100% with odds between 1.0-1.2). Stefanini has a poor performance as an outsider (30% win rate). Recent form is similar, but the ranking and favorite status advantage leans towards Andreeva.

1.57

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Lucrezia Stefanini vs Erika Andreeva

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Lucrezia Stefanini vs Erika Andreeva Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Lucrezia Stefanini	Erika Andreeva
Win \| Lose	4 6	3 7
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	37%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	50%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	66%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	20%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	10%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	40%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	66%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	40%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%