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Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Elise Mertens: our prediction

08/02/2026•13:05

#12

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

0:2

2•6

1•6

Finished

Elise Mertens

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Elise Mertens Preview — Qatar Total Open

Elise Mertens, the clear favorite (odds 1.21), faces Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at the Qatar Total Open. Mertens shows solid form (70% wins in the last 10 matches) and good efficiency as a favorite. Pavlyuchenkova, the underdog (odds 4.06), has less convincing recent statistics but can be dangerous. The match is played as best of 3 sets.

Our Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Elise Mertens predictions

Victory for Elise Mertens

Mertens is the logical favorite with a very low odds (1.21). Her statistics over the last 10 matches are solid: 70% overall wins and 70% wins as a favorite. Against opponents with odds between 1.21 and 1.50, she has won 80% of her matches (4/5). Pavlyuchenkova wins only 20% of her recent matches and has a 0% win rate against such highly rated favorites (odds 1.0-1.2). No known injury alert contradicts this scenario.

1.19

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 sets (Match in 2 sets)

The players' statistics in non-Grand Slam matches (best of 3 sets) lean towards a match in 2 sets. As a favorite, Mertens finishes her matches in 2 sets 60% of the time. As an underdog, Pavlyuchenkova loses in 2 sets 80% of the time. Furthermore, when Mertens is the favorite with odds between 1.21 and 1.50, she loses a set in only 20% of cases (1/5). The probability of a 3-set match therefore seems limited.

1.34

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a Mertens victory in 2 sets. If the match is played in 2 sets, the total number of games is very likely to stay under the 22.5 threshold. Statistics on close sets are not provided, but Mertens' profile as a solid favorite and Pavlyuchenkova's recent difficulties suggest potentially one-sided sets (e.g., 6-3, 6-4 = 19 games). Confidence is medium because a very close set could push the total over this threshold even in 2 sets.

1.42

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Elise Mertens

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Elise Mertens Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	Elise Mertens
Win \| Lose	2 8	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	83%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	57%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	40%