Mees Rottgering - Kyrian Jacquet: our prediction

Kyrian Jacquet is the logical favorite (odds 1.32). His statistics are solid: 80% wins in the last 10 matches and an 80% win rate when he is the favorite. He faces Mees Rottgering who has only a 40% win rate over the same period. The difference in level and consistency clearly favors Jacquet.

Player statistics in non-Grand Slam matches indicate a high probability of a 3-set match. Rottgering (underdog) wins at least 1 set in 70% of cases. Jacquet (favorite) loses at least 1 set in 50% of cases when he is the favorite. Furthermore, in the last 10 non-Grand Slam matches, Jacquet has played 50% of his matches in 3 sets and Rottgering 40%. The combination of these factors suggests a close match.

Predicting a 3-set match (over 2.5 sets) mechanically increases the chances of exceeding the 22.5 game mark. A close 2-set match (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) totals 24 games. A 3-set match, even with a one-sided set, often exceeds this mark (e.g., 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 = 29 games). Given the players' profiles and the probability of a competitive match, over 22.5 games is a logical consequence.