Arthur Bouquier - Laurent Lokoli: our prediction

Bouquier is clearly the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.48). His statistics as a favorite are solid: 70% wins in his last 10 matches in that role. Although his overall recent form is mixed (3W/7L), he performs well under favorite pressure. Lokoli as an underdog has only a 40% win rate. The match dynamics and favorite status favor Bouquier.

Both players' statistics indicate a high probability of a three-set match. As a favorite, Bouquier loses at least one set in 70% of his matches. Lokoli, as an underdog, wins at least one set in 60% of his matches. Furthermore, their overall 3-set match percentages (outside Grand Slam) are 30% each, but the favorite/underdog context reinforces the idea of a tight match. A straight two-set scoreline seems unlikely.

The prediction of a three-set match (over 2.5 sets) naturally increases the chances of exceeding the total games mark of 22.5. A tight two-set match (e.g., 7-5, 7-5) would total 24 games. A three-set match, even with an easy set, often exceeds this limit (e.g., 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 = 29 games). Given the profiles and the likelihood of a tight match, the total number of games should be high.