Rugby

Tennis

Tomas Etcheverry - Denis Shapovalov: our prediction

07/03/2026•02:35

#21

Tomas Etcheverry

1:2

3•6

6•2

6•7

Finished

#14

Denis Shapovalov

Tomas Etcheverry vs Denis Shapovalov Preview — BNP Paribas Open

A tight match is expected between Tomas Etcheverry and Denis Shapovalov at Indian Wells. Shapovalov is the favorite on paper, but Etcheverry shows solid form and recent strong performances as a favorite. The match could be contested and go to three sets.

Our Tomas Etcheverry vs Denis Shapovalov predictions

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Statistics show a strong tendency for three-set matches for both players in non-Grand Slam conditions (Etcheverry 60%, Shapovalov 50%). Etcheverry, as an outsider, often wins at least one set (70%), while Shapovalov, as a favorite, often loses one (60%). No reported injuries contradict this dynamic.

2.23

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

The prediction of a three-set match (over 2.5 sets) makes a total games count over 22.5 very likely. Even a tight two-set match (e.g., 7-5, 7-6) reaches 25 games. Playing styles and close-set statistics support this scenario.

1.8

Confidence

High

Denis Shapovalov to win

Shapovalov is the designated favorite (odds 1.52). He has a 70% win rate as a favorite in his last 10 matches. However, his tendency to lose sets (60% of the time as a favorite) and Etcheverry's solid form (80% wins in last 10 matches) make this bet risky, hence medium confidence.

1.5

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Tomas Etcheverry vs Denis Shapovalov

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Tomas Etcheverry vs Denis Shapovalov Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Tomas Etcheverry	Denis Shapovalov
Win \| Lose	8 2	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	40%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	80%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	100%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	16%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	83%