Rugby

Tennis

Sebastian Ofner - Tomas Etcheverry: our prediction

24/04/2026•17:00

#43

Sebastian Ofner

0:2

4•6

Finished

#21

Tomas Etcheverry

Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Preview — Madrid Open

Sebastian Ofner faces Tomas Etcheverry in the first round of the 2026 Madrid Open. Ofner, the underdog, has a 60% win rate in his last 10 matches, but only 10% as an underdog. Etcheverry, the favorite, has a 90% win rate as a favorite and 50% overall. The match is played on clay, Etcheverry's preferred surface. Ofner tends to play tight matches (80% of his non-Grand Slam matches end in 2 sets), while Etcheverry is more prone to 3-set matches (60%).

Our Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry predictions

Victory for Tomas Etcheverry

Etcheverry is the logical favorite with odds of 1.61. He has a 90% win rate when favored, compared to only 10% for Ofner as an underdog. Additionally, Etcheverry is more comfortable on clay, the match surface. Ofner has shown difficulties against higher-ranked opponents.

1.53

Confidence

Very high (80 %)

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Ofner has 80% of his non-Grand Slam matches ending in 2 sets. Etcheverry, although favored, has 60% of his non-Grand Slam matches ending in 3 sets, but against an underdog like Ofner, the match could be more straightforward. Ofner's tendency to lose quickly in 2 sets when an underdog (50% of his non-Grand Slam matches as underdog end in 2 sets) reinforces this prediction.

1.55

Confidence

High (65 %)

Under 22.5 games in the match

Ofner has 80% of his non-Grand Slam matches ending in 2 sets, suggesting quick matches. Etcheverry, although favored, tends to lose sets (80% of his matches as favorite see at least one set lost), but the 2-set format is likely. The average games per set is typically around 9-10, so 2 sets would yield about 18-20 games, well under 22.5.

Confidence

High (65 %)

Market signals on Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Sebastian Ofner	Tomas Etcheverry
Win \| Lose	6 4	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	50%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	50%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	83%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	10%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	16%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	66%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%