Rugby

Tennis

Alex de Minaur - Sebastian Ofner: our prediction

14/04/2026•11:10

Alex de Minaur

2:0

7•6

6•4

Finished

#43

Sebastian Ofner

Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Preview — Barcelona Open

Alex de Minaur, the clear favorite, faces Sebastian Ofner at the Barcelona Open. De Minaur, more experienced and better on clay, is expected to win, but Ofner could put up a fight and take a set.

Our Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner predictions

Alex de Minaur to Win

De Minaur is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.19). He has better recent form (60% win rate in last 10 matches vs. 70% for Ofner, but against generally weaker opposition for Ofner). His status, experience, and adaptation to the Barcelona Open clay court give him a clear advantage. No known injury alerts.

1.17

Confidence

Very high

Over 22.5 games in the match

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a 3-set match. A 2-set match (e.g., 6-4, 6-4) totals 20 games. A 3-set match easily exceeds the 22.5 game mark, especially if sets are tight (e.g., 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 = 31 games). Given Ofner's resilience and De Minaur's tendency to drop a set, the total number of games should be high.

2.38

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Statistics indicate a significant probability of a 3-set match. De Minaur, as the favorite, loses at least one set in 60% of cases ('perd1set_asfav_g'). Ofner, as the outsider, wins at least one set in 60% of cases ('win1set_asoutsider_g'). Combined with Ofner winning 70% of his last 10 matches (showing confidence), a set for the outsider is a plausible scenario.

2.88

Confidence

High

Market signals on Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Alex de Minaur	Sebastian Ofner
Win \| Lose	6 4	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	70%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	80%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	60%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	66%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	85%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	10%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%