Rugby

Tennis

Alex de Minaur - Tommy Paul: our prediction

22/05/2026•17:40

Alex de Minaur

1:2

6•2

3•6

Finished

#12

Tommy Paul

Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Preview — Hamburg European Open

First round match of the Hamburg European Open between Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul. De Minaur is the favorite with odds of 1.69, but Paul has an 80% win rate in his last 10 matches. The match is played on clay, De Minaur's preferred surface.

Our Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul predictions

Tommy Paul Victory

Tommy Paul has an 80% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to 60% for De Minaur. Paul is also very effective as a favorite (80% wins), while De Minaur has only 40% wins as a favorite. Additionally, Paul has a good win/loss record on clay and appears to be in full confidence.

2.19

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

With a high probability of a 3-set match and players who tend to lose sets, the total number of games should exceed 22.5. Statistics show that matches between players of this caliber on clay are often tight and long.

1.86

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Both players have a 50% rate of 3-set matches outside of Grand Slams. Additionally, De Minaur loses a set in 80% of his matches as a favorite, and Paul in 60%. This suggests a high probability that the match will go to a third set.

2.21

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Alex de Minaur	Tommy Paul
Win \| Lose	6 4	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	30%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	40%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	60%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	40%	87%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	20%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	60%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	60%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	80%	62%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	66%	100%

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