Alex de Minaur - Tommy Paul: our prediction
22/05/2026•17:40
#9
Alex de Minaur
1:2
6•2
3•6
3•6
Finished
#12
Tommy Paul
-
1
-
X
-
2
Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Preview — Hamburg European Open
First round match of the Hamburg European Open between Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul. De Minaur is the favorite with odds of 1.69, but Paul has an 80% win rate in his last 10 matches. The match is played on clay, De Minaur's preferred surface.
Our Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul predictions
Tommy Paul Victory
Tommy Paul has an 80% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to 60% for De Minaur. Paul is also very effective as a favorite (80% wins), while De Minaur has only 40% wins as a favorite. Additionally, Paul has a good win/loss record on clay and appears to be in full confidence.
2.19
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
With a high probability of a 3-set match and players who tend to lose sets, the total number of games should exceed 22.5. Statistics show that matches between players of this caliber on clay are often tight and long.
1.86
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Both players have a 50% rate of 3-set matches outside of Grand Slams. Additionally, De Minaur loses a set in 80% of his matches as a favorite, and Paul in 60%. This suggests a high probability that the match will go to a third set.
2.21
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 6 4 | 8 2 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 70% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 30% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 70% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 30% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 60% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 87% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 20% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 60% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 80% | 62% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 66% | 100% |
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