Amanda Anisimova - Ajla Tomljanovic: our prediction

Anisimova is the statistical and logical favorite. Her very low odds (1.16) reflect her clear superiority. Over the last 10 matches, she has a win rate of 60% (global) and 70% when favored. Tomljanovic, although performing well (70% recent wins), has only a 40% win rate as an underdog. No injury information alters this prediction.

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a 3-set match. A match in 2 sets (2-0) often requires fewer than 22.5 games (e.g., 6-4, 6-4 = 20 games). A 3-set match almost always exceeds this limit. Given the high probability of 3 sets and Tomljanovic's competitiveness (80% chance of winning a set), the total games are likely to exceed 22.5. Even a tight 2-set match (e.g., 7-5, 7-5 = 24 games) could validate it.

The players' statistics indicate a high probability of a 3-set match. Anisimova, although favored, loses 1 set in 50% of her matches as a favorite. Tomljanovic, as an underdog, wins at least 1 set in 80% of her matches. Furthermore, outside Grand Slams, Anisimova plays 50% of her matches in 3 sets, and Tomljanovic 30%. The combination of these factors makes the 3-set scenario very plausible.