Ignacio Buse vs David Goffin — Prediction
04/04/2026•13:05
#56
Ignacio Buse
1:2
6•2
3•6
3•6
Finished
#8
David Goffin
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Young Peruvian Ignacio Buse faces experienced David Goffin in the Monte Carlo Masters qualifiers. Buse is the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.23) despite a lower ranking, likely due to his superior recent form (60% wins in last 10 matches vs 20% for Goffin). The match is played on clay, the preferred surface for both players. Statistics suggest a potentially tight match with a high probability of seeing three sets.
Our predictions
Ignacio Buse to Win
Ignacio Buse is clearly the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.23). His recent form is significantly better than Goffin's (60% wins vs 20% in last 10 matches). Although less experienced, he is playing on his favorite surface (clay) and seems confident. Goffin, struggling this season, may find it hard to reverse the trend.
1.21
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Sets (Match in 3 Sets)
Player statistics as favorite/underdog indicate a high probability of a three-set match. Buse, as favorite, loses at least one set 60% of the time. Goffin, as underdog, wins at least one set 70% of the time. Furthermore, in the last 10 non-Grand Slam matches, Buse played 80% of his matches in 3 sets, and Goffin played 80% of his matches in 2 sets when favorite, but here he is the underdog. The dynamic suggests resistance from Goffin.
2.74
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
This bet is consistent with the prediction of a three-set match. A match in two tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-4) totals 22 games, just below the limit. A match in three sets, even with relatively short sets (e.g., 6-4, 4-6, 6-3), easily exceeds 22.5 games (23 games in this example). Given the high probability of three sets and the expected competitiveness, the total number of games should exceed 22.5.
2.3
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 6 4 | 2 8 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 100% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 80% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 100% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 40% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 30% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 33% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 16% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 20% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 80% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 60% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 90% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 83% |
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