Jan Lennard Struff vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Prediction
04/04/2026•13:05
#19
Jan-Lennard Struff
0:2
3•6
3•6
Finished
#17
Nikoloz Basilashvili
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Jan-Lennard Struff, the favorite (odds 1.52), faces Nikoloz Basilashvili (odds 2.39) in the Monte-Carlo Masters qualifiers on clay. Struff, more consistent recently, is slightly favored against Basilashvili, who is more erratic but capable of explosive performances.
Our predictions
Jan-Lennard Struff to Win
Struff is the designated favorite (odds 1.52). His recent stats show better consistency (40% win rate as favorite vs. 20% for Basilashvili as an outsider in a similar odds range). On a slow surface like clay, his more solid game should prevail against Basilashvili's inconsistency.
1.56
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Sets in the Match
The players' stats as favorite/outsider suggest a close match. Struff loses at least one set as a favorite 60% of the time, and Basilashvili wins at least one set as an outsider 40-50% of the time. Furthermore, 3-set matches are common in clay-court qualifiers. The probability of a 3-set match is high.
2.34
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
With a high probability of a 3-set match, the total games should exceed 22.5. Even in 2 sets, if the sets are tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games), the line is close. Basilashvili's tendency to play erratic sets and Struff's solidity could generate breaks on both sides, prolonging games. Confidence is medium because a straightforward 2-set match (6-3, 6-4) is possible.
1.88
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 2 8 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 70% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 80% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 50% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 60% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 50% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 75% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 20% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 20% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 50% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 33% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 100% |
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